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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic; Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Forum.

Updated International CFR 4.2%

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BabyCat View Drop Down
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    Posted: February 23 2020 at 10:56am

This thread will have the updated international (outside of China) CFR and severity rates.


I'll try to put updates in subsequent posts, as well as update/edit this first post/title as it progresses, but if anyone else wants to update the stats regularly, please go ahead and do so.


Source:

https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/


        CASES   DEATHS

TOTAL     2,050     26     82 serious/critical


CFR: 1.2%

Severity Rate: 4%

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2020 at 11:20am
Thank you, Baby Cat.

Folks, don't swamp BabyCat's thread with thanks - HOWEVER WELL DESERVED. There is a thanks option on the top right of the post. Click that and it will tot up your thanks on BC's member profile.
ERCD
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2020 at 3:53pm



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2020 at 3:58pm
Great information for scared moms!
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BabyCat View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2020 at 5:32pm
     2,213     27     82 serious/critical
CFR: 1.22%
Severity Rate: 3.7%
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BabyCat View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 24 2020 at 12:43am
TOTAL     2,292     32     82 serious/critical
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 24 2020 at 7:14am
TOTAL     2,371     36     89 serious/critical     
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Newbie1A Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 24 2020 at 7:50am
Originally posted by BabyCat BabyCat wrote:

TOTAL     2,292     32     82 serious/critical


Isn't this what Kilt was posting before? Or is this different data (different source?)?
If it's to be - it's up to me!
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BabyCat View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 24 2020 at 8:12am
Maybe,I'll check. If it duplicative, I'll remove thread.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 24 2020 at 8:17am
I can't find the recent thread. But I think that thread had total case count rather than focused on CFR and severity rate, am I missing something?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Newbie1A Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 24 2020 at 8:49am
Nope it is different - had to go hunt for it...
Feb.22 was "There are currently 77,985 confirmed cases worldwide, including 2,362 fatalities."
So yes, total same - other info different. Perfect! Sorry, what happens when not 'awake enough' yet...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 24 2020 at 9:28pm
https://twitter.com/CIDRAP/status/1232082983265472513

CIDRAP
@CIDRAP
Study of 72,000 COVID-19 patients finds 2.3% death rate http://ow.ly/Voeh30qkqgq #CoronavirusOutbreak #COVID19 #Wuhan

--

BAD NEWS.

Study of 72,000 COVID-19 patients finds 2.3% death rate
Filed Under: COVID-19
Stephanie Soucheray | News Reporter | CIDRAP News | Feb 24, 2020
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critically_ill_patient.jpg
Critically ill patient in hospital
sudok1 / iStock
Researchers from China's Center for Disease Control and Prevention today describe the clinical findings on more than 72,000 COVID-19 cases reported in mainland China, which reveal a case-fatality rate (CFR) of 2.3% and suggest most cases are mild, but the disease hits the elderly the hardest.

The study, published in JAMA, is the largest patient-based study on the novel coronavirus, which was first connected to seafood market in Wuhan, China, in December, and has since traversed the globe.

Death rate in critically ill: 49% or higher
A total of 72,314 COVID-19 cases, diagnosed through Feb 11 were used for the study. Of the 72,314 cases, 44,672 were classified as confirmed cases of COVID-19 (62%; diagnosis based on positive throat swab samples), 16,186 as suspected cases (diagnosis based on symptoms and exposures only), 10,567 as clinically diagnosed cases (from Hubei province only, diagnoses based on symptoms, including lung x-ray), and 889 as asymptomatic cases (diagnosis by positive test result but lacking typical symptoms).
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 24 2020 at 11:11pm
TOTAL     2,495     40     90 serious/critical     
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2020 at 12:11pm
TOTAL     2,752     47     86 serious/critical
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2020 at 6:11pm
TOTAL     2,931     48     93 serious/critical
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2020 at 10:03pm
     2,934     48     105 serious/critical
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 26 2020 at 7:45am
3,206     56     105 serious/critical
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 26 2020 at 10:16pm
3,667     57     106 serious/critical
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 29 2020 at 12:02pm
TOTAL6,718107204 serious/critical
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TOTAL7,156109203 serious/critical
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiminNM Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2020 at 8:28am

Originally posted by BabyCat BabyCat wrote:

TOTAL7,156109203 serious/critical


Looking at your last 2 posts, 2 new ones died, the serious/critical went down by one, so one died that was NOT previously on the serious/critical list.  

Things that make you go hmmm.....      (I haven't looked for or noticed that on previous posts, this one just jumped out at me for some reason) 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2020 at 8:45am

Or simultaneously a new patient joined the critical list.

ERCD
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TOTAL8,428130241 serious/critical
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TOTAL10,775180280 serious/critical
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 03 2020 at 4:04pm

crude CFR rising as expected with infection to death time lag, and delayed reporting (for example, two WA citizens died on Feb. 26(!) and only confirmed just now. THANKS, CDC, FOR YOUR OVERLY NARROW TESTING CRITERIA.

Totals: 12,663, deaths 223

Liechtenstein10


Source

TOTAL12,66322324936816


TOTAL12,66322324936816


TOTAL12,66322324936816
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 04 2020 at 9:34pm

Some interesting trends in the data regarding CFR...

South Korea, which has done over 160,000 tests, which has led to 5,766 confirmed, and they have seen "only" 35 deaths. If the CFR was as expected, with 35 deaths would expect to see 196 deaths with a 3.4% CFR, or 115 with a 2%.

Think about that. That impllies a CFR of about 0.6% right now.

People are assuming that many of the mild cases were missed in China and elsewhere. Maybe that's correct, and is shown by S. Korea's aggressive testing.

Perhaps the 2% of 3.4% overall figures are way off at the moment. Scientists haven't had a chance to take samples of the average population, it's so new, so hard to get a handle on attack rate and prevalence in a population. They are just getting antibody testing (to confirm if previously exposed) off the ground. 

This might make sense of the data we are seeing in Iran, and the US. If it's only a 0.6% CFR, then we would multiply deaths by 167 to get an approximation of 1833 US infections which is about the estimate that some experts have suggested in the US, as well as to arrive at a figure of about 500,000 infected, in China, which would make a heck of a lot more sense from the actions of the government. In Iran, with 92 deaths, would imply about 15,000 infected.  

Maybe a LOT more people are/were infected, recovering/ed, and don't/didn't even know it!

OTHER PLACESCasesDeathsSeriousCriticalRecovered

South Korea5,76635272588
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 07 2020 at 3:19pm
CASESDEATHSRECOVERED



105,8313,57058,204












OTHER PLACESCasesDeathsSeriousCriticalRecovered


Mainland China80,6513,0705,489-55,404

500 deaths out of 25,180 cases = 1.985%

Climbing higher...


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 10 2020 at 8:36pm

Big jump in (s)CFR... 1132/38,461

CASESDEATHSRECOVEREDUNRESOLVED

119,2394,29066,33548,614










OTHER PLACESCasesDeathsSeriousCritical
Recovered



Mainland China80,7783,158


CASESDEATHSRECOVEREDUNRESOLVED

119,2394,29066,33548,614










OTHER PLACESCasesDeathsSeriousCritical
Recovered



Mainland China80,7783,158


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 20 2020 at 3:23pm

Time to revisit. 

Unfortunately 8106/193204 = 4.2% . Bad news. 

which is exactly the same as the total including China: 11354/274171 = 4.2%

If the testing of that Italian town which shows incidence in population of 50-75% aymptomatic that would mean a CFR of 1.05 - 2.1%

Which is still bad, bad news.  

Now it's starting to make sense why entire countries are deciding to sacrifice their economies in the short term and shut down.

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