USC antibody study in LA finds widespread COVID19

Los Angeles (April 20, 2020) – USC and the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health (Public Health) today released preliminary results from a collaborative scientific study that suggests infections from the new coronavirus are far more widespread – and the fatality rate much lower — in L.A. County than previously thought.

The results are from the first round of an ongoing study by USC researchers and Public Health officials. They will be conducting antibody testing over time on a series of representative samples of adults to determine the scope and spread of the pandemic across the county.

Based on results of the first round of testing, the research team estimates that approximately 4.1% of the county’s adult population has antibody to the virus. Adjusting this estimate for statistical margin of error implies about 2.8% to 5.6% of the county’s adult population has antibody to the virus— which translates to approximately 221,000 to 442,000 adults in the county who have had the infection. That estimate is 28 to 55 times higher than the 7,994 confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported to the county by the time of the study in early April. The number of COVID-related deaths in the county has now surpassed 600.

“We haven’t known the true extent of COVID-19 infections in our community because we have only tested people with symptoms, and the availability of tests has been limited,” said lead investigator Neeraj Sood, a USC professor of public policy at USC Price School for Public Policy and senior fellow at USC Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Economics. “The estimates also suggest that we might have to recalibrate disease prediction models and rethink public health strategies.”

The results have important implications for public health efforts to control the local epidemic. 

“These results indicate that many persons may have been unknowingly infected and at risk of transmitting the virus to others,” said Dr. Barbara Ferrer, director of the L.A. County Department of Public Health. “These findings underscore the importance of expanded polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing to diagnose those with infection so they can be isolated and quarantined, while also maintaining the broad social distancing interventions.” 

The antibody test is helpful for identifying past infection, but a PCR test is required to diagnose current infection.

“Though the results indicate a lower risk of death among those with infection than was previously thought, the number of COVID-related deaths each day continues to mount, highlighting the need for continued vigorous prevention and control efforts,” said Dr. Paul Simon, chief science officer at L.A. County Department of Public Health and co-lead on the study.

The study’s results have not yet been peer reviewed by other scientists. The researchers plan to test new groups of participants every few weeks in coming months to gauge the pandemic’s trajectory in the region.

About the study
With help from medical students from the Keck School of Medicine of USC, USC researchers and Public Health officials conducted drive-through antibody testing April 10th and 11th at six sites. Participants were recruited via a proprietary database that is representative of the county population. 

http://createsend.com/t/j-296D9D8CE54262BB2540EF23F30FEDED

So yet again it's shown to be far more widespread than what the actual confirmed numbers indicate and less lethal. 

So has Medcram,

Pretty shocking shabby piece of research.

Biased their sampling by advertising in a region with known high community case numbers.  Then recruited with Facebook by advertising  free testing at a drive through area. 

This skewed for participants who knew they had possible exposure in an area with lots of cases. and wanted to take the incentive for themselves and their close contacts to access a test.   No incentive for those with little risk asking them to drive to an area where they will queue  fir what.

Also statistics in paper and false positive rate of test dont add up.  

Peer review of article pretty much took its method to pieces.  Studies like this are cringeworthy as they ignore all the basics of experiment design and contaminate their own data with bias.

Hz

Watch "Coronavirus Pandemic Update 58: Testing; Causes of Hypoxemia in COVID-19 (V/Q vs Shunt vs Diffusion)" on YouTube

https://youtu.be/nO4xgcIaPeA

Well what's interesting is that actual virus testing and antibody testing show a very large asymptomatic component of those infected with the virus and all have similar test results. This week serosurveys from China, Iceland, Germany, Italy and Australia are expected to be released so it'll be interesting to see those test results and how they correlate with testing in the US. Additionally several large scale serosurveys are underway in the US and that information is forthcoming as well in a few weeks.

Does not matter what the CFR is.  The problem is too many people sick at the same time!  No one seems to remember that!  I sure don't want to go to the hospital NOW with too many Covid19 patients!  Poor care no matter what!   The antibody test will make make a difference unless like the common cold this virus will make former patients sick again...think about that one!