Click to Translate to English Click to Translate to French  Click to Translate to Spanish  Click to Translate to German  Click to Translate to Italian  Click to Translate to Japanese  Click to Translate to Chinese Simplified  Click to Translate to Korean  Click to Translate to Arabic  Click to Translate to Russian  Click to Translate to Portuguese  Click to Translate to Myanmar (Burmese)

PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
123456
Forum Home Forum Home > Main Forums > General Discussion
  New Posts New Posts RSS Feed - Watch Professor John Oxford speak about the Spanis
  FAQ FAQ  Forum Search   Events   Register Register  Login Login

Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant

Watch Professor John Oxford speak about the Spanis

 Post Reply Post Reply
Author
Message
Guests View Drop Down
Guest Group
Guest Group
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Watch Professor John Oxford speak about the Spanis
    Posted: February 14 2007 at 4:48pm
1918-1919 “Spanish Flu”

The 1918-19 "Spanish Flu" outbreak occurred immediately after World War 1 and lasted about 15 months. Even though this was the era before commercial airline travel, the disease spread across the world within 2 months. It was a global catastrophe.

Approximately 30 percent of the world's population was infected and about 50 million people died - many within 48 hours of becoming ill. Those who lived for more than a few days often later died of pneumonia.

Watch Professor John Oxford speak about the Spanish Flu

Caused by Influenza A
Seroarcheology, or the investigation of past diseases, shows that the epidemic was caused by an H1N1 strain of influenza A. The virus may have originated in the Northern France or the USA.

Occurred in waves
The first wave of illness struck Europe, Asia, Africa and the USA. WHO described this first wave as “not especially deadly.” The second wave was highly lethal, killing about 5-10% of those it infected. Some speculate that the virus mutated in pigs before sparking a second wave of illness.

Killed young healthy adults
Spanish flu was especially able to kill young adults between the ages of 15 and 35, as well as the very young, the elderly and the infirm. No antibiotics or vaccinations were available during this pandemic.

Quarantine did not stop the spread.
Quarantine efforts did not prevent the disease from spreading globally, except possibly to delay its introduction into Australia. Due to its isolation, Australia remained unaffected until 1919. By the time the virus reached Australia, the flu strain was not as virulent (serious) but may have remained active for a longer period.

Updated: 07 December 2006
Back to Top
Guests View Drop Down
Guest Group
Guest Group
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 14 2007 at 4:49pm
Back to Top
Guests View Drop Down
Guest Group
Guest Group
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 14 2007 at 4:50pm

It could happen like this...

The first reports
Rumors of an outbreak of unusually severe respiratory illness in two villages in a remote province prompt the WHO to dispatch a team to investigate. The team finds that people in the villages have been falling sick for about a month and that the number of cases is increasing each day. The team is able to identify at least 50 cases over the previous month. All age groups have been affected. Twenty patients are currently in the provincial hospital. Five people have already died of pneumonia and acute respiratory failure.

Specimens sent to the lab
Surveillance in surrounding areas is increased, and new cases are identified throughout the province. Respiratory specimens collected from several patients are tested at the national laboratory and are found to be positive for type A influenza virus. The isolates are sent to the WHO Reference Centre and are found to be influenza A(H*N1), a subtype never isolated from humans before. Gene sequencing studies further indicate that most of the viral genes are from a bird influenza virus, with the remaining genes derived from a human strain. More cases appear in surrounding towns and villages.

Spread to neighboring countries and attempts at quarantine
The new influenza virus begins to make headlines in every major newspaper, and becomes the lead story on news networks. Countries are asked by WHO to intensify influenza surveillance and control activities. Key government officials throughout the region are briefed on a daily basis, while surveillance is intensified. Over the next two months, outbreaks begin to take place in neighboring countries. Although cases are reported in all age groups, young adults seem to be the most severely affected. One in every 20 patients dies. The rate of spread is rapid, and countries initiate travel restrictions and quarantine measures.

Social effects
Educational institutions are closed. Widespread panic begins because supplies of antiviral drugs are severely limited and a suitable vaccine is not yet available. One week later, there are reports that the H*N1 virus has been isolated from airline passengers with respiratory symptoms arriving from affected countries.

Other continents affected
A few weeks later, the first local outbreaks are reported from other continents. Rates of absenteeism in schools and businesses begin to rise. Phones at health departments ring constantly. The spread of the new virus continues to be the major news item in print and electronic media. Citizens start to clamor for vaccines, but they are still not available. Antiviral drugs cannot be obtained. Police departments, local utility companies and mass transit authorities experience significant personnel shortages that result in severe disruption of routine services. Soon, hospitals and outpatient clinics are critically short-staffed as doctors, nurses and other healthcare workers themselves become ill or are afraid to come to work.

Fearing infection, elderly patients with chronic medical conditions do not dare to leave home. Intensive care units at local hospitals are overwhelmed, and soon there are insufficient ventilators for the treatment of pneumonia patients. Parents are distraught when their healthy young adult sons and daughters die within days of first becoming ill.

Several major airports close because of high absenteeism among air traffic controllers. Over the next 6-8 weeks, health and other essential community services deteriorate further as the pandemic sweeps across the world.

Back to Top
Guests View Drop Down
Guest Group
Guest Group
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 15 2007 at 11:17am
I don't think any airports will be open for very long if TSHTF and it's gone H2H. The military might be for transporting food and supplies, but in terms of general flights I don't think we'll even have that option. I know I wouldn't want someone landing here as they might be bringing it with them!

Most hospitals only have 5-15 ventilators. There's only about 150,000 in the whole USA. Those will be full within the first onset in any community, if it's as bad as they think it "might" be.
Back to Top
 Post Reply Post Reply
  Share Topic   

Forum Jump Forum Permissions View Drop Down