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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic since 2005; Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic Discussion Forum.

We are losing the fight

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: We are losing the fight
    Posted: July 24 2021 at 2:26am

DJ,

[url]https://twitter.com/DrEricDing[/url] or https://twitter.com/DrEricDing ;

Welp—there’s discussions among epidemiologists now whether we can hold the #DeltaVariant down. With a R0=6 we can just barely. But with an R0=8 it’s much harder under 60% efficacy and 64% vaxxed. What is the estimated R0 range of Delta? 5-8 ➡️ more contagious than smallpox.
Citeer Tweet

Addition to tweet #3. We don't need to wait for a variant w/ R0 = 12. A variant w/ R0 = 8 might be already uncontrollable. 

[url]https://twitter.com/GosiaGasperoPhD/status/1418744819002732546[/url] or https://twitter.com/GosiaGasperoPhD/status/1418744819002732546 ;

-Vaccines only strategy=R0 of 4,9

-PH measures only=R0 of 1,9

-Combination of both still would see R0 of 1,15

Dr. John Campbell-most of the time over optimistic on vaccines; 

Israel's Health Ministry https://www.gov.il/en/departments/top... 

June 20 to July 17 Delta spreading


 Pfizer vaccine's efficacy in preventing delta variant infections, 39% 


Still 91 % effective in preventing serious illness 

Decreasing potency of the vaccination against transmission 

Those vaccinated January, 16% February, 44% March, 67% April, 75% 

Protection against severe illness, January vaccinated, 86%

translation; Vaccine protection is dropping fast. Since not only Israel is reporting an increase of "vaccine escape"-it is also showing up for other vaccines then Pfizer, for several variants, in several countries-DJ-Vaccines did buy us even less time then we may have hoped for...

Still vaccinations are presented as the key for (economy) reopenings-"booster vaccines" now are supposed to do the job...Not realistic ! 

The main problem is high speed spread of-very likely-several variants-all around the globe,,,The only sensible thing to do is STOP THE SPREAD !!!!

In a TV-show in NL last night "Red Team" experts-advising but ignored by the NL government-indicated the NL government "does not seem to have any plans yet" for restarting schools, jobs in september...The present number of cases is "extreme" for summer...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 24 2021 at 2:40am

DJ-I remember over a month ago in one of Dr. John Campbells videos a UK prof already warning the R0 for Delta-uncontrolled-would be 8-not 6....China has been sending these warnings as well...

Delta+ may be even worse...

Dr.Eric Ding a few days ago mentioned a person between infection and spreading the virus (I believe it was a young healthy man...) only was 30 hours ! DJ-This makes spread as good as uncontrolable...

Vaccinations will result in much higher asymptomatic spread-since people think they do not catch the virus they will NOT be tested while still spreading the virus. Countries often focus on "limiting hospital cases" instead of limiting CASES...

When they start acting when hospitals are in yet another crisis again they are running behind the facts-this time with variants escaping from immunity high speed...aerosol-spread.

No doubt health care workers (HCW-ers) will be much more effected;

-aerosol spread

-longer distance spread

-smaller particles

-higher viral load

CDC like "experts" still sticking to dealing with variants that are no longer the major concern...

With many countries still in denial how serious Delta (and other variants) are-much to limited testing/sequencing-almost maximum oppertunity to spread/mutate an explosion of cases is on its way...

DJ-One of the main reasons why we do not know how variants interact with non-human hosts is that we simply do not even look at it....

"We are preparing for a large BBQ-party outdoors while the hurricane is allready showing itself" -beyond insane ! 

I hope I am very, very wrong !


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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KiminNM View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiminNM Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 24 2021 at 11:10am

Geez, it was hard enough reading his tweets the last couple of days about the breakthrough data from Israel, and THEN the data from Israel showing the HUGE drop in efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine.  

I hadn't seen his additions to the thread today that you posted here. We are so screwed.

I posted all of this info on Facebook - and where last year I at least had a handful of people engaging with these type of posts, now I have none. Even the super careful people are just burnt out, and don't want to hear anything that contradicts the CDC "it's all fine, don't wear your mask, you'll just get a mild case, nothing to see hear folks, moving on" message.

(The only exception is a small local Covid page, where thankfully people are still sharing leading-edge info)

Thank you for posting this DJ.  UGH, and, thank you.  Your posts are always greatly appreciated. 

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 24 2021 at 1:25pm

KiminNM-I hate to bring this kind of horror news...[url]https://twitter.com/DrEricDing[/url] or https://twitter.com/DrEricDing now also posting pictures showing long covid brain damage..."simply ignored"....

Simple calculations Vaccines offer R0 reduction, NPI offer reduction-but if the combination is still a R0 above 1 "we are losing it"...(in the example a R0=8 variant- vaccines=4,9-NPI would be 1,9- So 4,9+1,9=6,8  8-6,8 would leave a R0 of around 1,2=spreading...

Delta may be between R0 5 and 8...some other variants Delta+ may be "worse"...so yes-with vaccines giving LESS protection (bringing the R0 of 8 maybe just to 5 ) more restrictions-draconic-would be needed...

Iceland (88% adults fully vaccinated ?) is going for more restrictions...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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ME163 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ME163 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 24 2021 at 2:00pm

DJ. 

It is clear that we lost the fight to beat this thing.  So what is next ? Booster shots are not going to get here in time. Do we need to self isolate again ? 

Do we need a shut down again ?

ME163 

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KiwiMum View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 24 2021 at 2:23pm

Josh, you are spot on when you say that countries are mainly concerned with keeping the numbers down in hospitals. That's exactly it. Anyone who thinks governments are concentrating on reducing deaths is delusional. It is and always has been, about economics. What no country on earth can afford is for it's health service to be overrun to the point of collapse and it's come pretty close to that for many countries so far. The purpose of the vaccines is to reduce the number of serious cases. I can see the merit in that because our hospitals are not there solely to cope with pandemics. We need them to work with good capacity for births, accidents, cancer treatments etc. 

The one thing needed by each and every government is social co operation, and with a functioning health service, they will get that. But imagine if people with broken limbs can't be accommodated? If expectant mothers are turned away? Very soon there would be rioting on the streets and the civilisation that is hanging on by a thread these days would unravel. If that were to happen, bang goes law and order and with it the tax revenue that funds the government. The thin veneer of civilisation is a fragile and delicate thing, and every aspect of our lives is dependent upon every other aspect to survive. It very finely balanced.

"Once you've decided that something's absolutely true, you've closed your mind on it, and a closed mind doesn't go anywhere. Question everything. That's what education's all about." ~ David Eddings
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 24 2021 at 2:34pm

Originally posted by ME163 ME163 wrote:

DJ. 

It is clear that we lost the fight to beat this thing.  So what is next ? Booster shots are not going to get here in time. Do we need to self isolate again ? 

Do we need a shut down again ?

ME163 

I think everyone needs to do whatever they feel will protect themselves. Whatever they feel comfortable with. I have a cousin in the UK who is immensely vulnerable and she is still full on shielding and will continue to do so indefinitely. It's a grim outlook but she doesn't really have a choice right now. But I'm not sure if the public would tolerate a general lockdown. There's too much covid fatigue out there and, to many, it seems a bit draconian.

"Once you've decided that something's absolutely true, you've closed your mind on it, and a closed mind doesn't go anywhere. Question everything. That's what education's all about." ~ David Eddings
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 24 2021 at 2:40pm

ABC News: Fears Sydney anti-lockdown protest could be COVID-19 'superspreader event'.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-25/sydney-anti-lockdown-rally-could-be-covid-19-superspreader-event/100321006




With utterly selfish......(only been in lockdown for a month)!!!!!!

Feckin wa.kers like these walking amongst us I'm afraid we can never get over this virus ,

So glad I living over  here 4000kms away in a state of seemingly sane people......

Bring in the army Marshall Law ,shoot on site.......

Bunch of bastards......

Sorry for the language(I did tone what I first wrote)

But I think in this case it's justified.......

Take care all 😷😉





Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 25 2021 at 3:06am

[url]https://twitter.com/DrEricDing[/url] or https://twitter.com/DrEricDing DJ-latest tweets; The CDC does not know what to do ? 

In the US it is a problem lots of decissions are made on member state level-not (yet) at federal level. Also the CDC ignoring "limits on vaccinations" and claiming "vaccinated people do not need masks" is "not helping"...

So-if we look at Dr.Ding his tweest..."cases go vertical"...And since the main problem in this pandemic is bad government ; [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/920175-states-scale-back-virus-reporting-just-as-cases-surge[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/920175-states-scale-back-virus-reporting-just-as-cases-surge If you can not control the crisis, control the news...

In scenario's I did write my idea's of a way out-lockdown starting NOW till 1-1-2022 should be the main part of it...with much better communications...much more testing/sequencing and increase in hospital investments-we will need them ! 

But there is no political will and most people do not want to be informed/know...so things will get much worse pretty fast ! If we get an even more violent/strong variant then Delta (R0 between 5 and 8) "we are toast" to quote Dr. Ding...

Since we do not want to know-it seems-the R0 of Delta+, Lambda, Gamma...the decrease of vaccine/natural immunity..."we soon will find out in a harder way"  R0 of some variants may be even worse, vaccines "very limited use"...

It will show itself before the end of august ? 

Cases are going down ? NO ! Testing is going down-people think if vaccinated they do not get Covid=WRONG ! Reporting is down-"populist criminals" love to claim "the pandemic is over"=WRONG ! 

It may have just started....

Sorry for the bad news-I do hope to be very, very wrong !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiminNM Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 26 2021 at 8:59am

Originally posted by Dutch Josh Dutch Josh wrote:

KiminNM-I hate to bring this kind of horror news...[url]https://twitter.com/DrEricDing[/url] or https://twitter.com/DrEricDing now also posting pictures showing long covid brain damage..."simply ignored"....

Simple calculations Vaccines offer R0 reduction, NPI offer reduction-but if the combination is still a R0 above 1 "we are losing it"...(in the example a R0=8 variant- vaccines=4,9-NPI would be 1,9- So 4,9+1,9=6,8  8-6,8 would leave a R0 of around 1,2=spreading...

Delta may be between R0 5 and 8...some other variants Delta+ may be "worse"...so yes-with vaccines giving LESS protection (bringing the R0 of 8 maybe just to 5 ) more restrictions-draconic-would be needed...

Iceland (88% adults fully vaccinated ?) is going for more restrictions...



Thanks DJ, I had missed that tweet. I'm not surprised by it though - I've known that long covid is something bad bad bad. (just finished reading Project Hail Mary - repeating something 3 times really stresses it)

I already have brain effects from a stroke, I have no intention of adding anything else to it! 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 26 2021 at 9:52am

I don't think too many educated people pay much attention to this Ding character. He's a well known liar and impersonator, selling fear porn on Twitter. I'm surprised Twitter hasn't shut him down yet. At least Harvard and their top tier experts have distanced themselves from this social media grifter...

https://dossier.substack.com/p/the-impersonator-eric-feigl-ding

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