Click to Translate to English Click to Translate to French  Click to Translate to Spanish  Click to Translate to German  Click to Translate to Italian  Click to Translate to Japanese  Click to Translate to Chinese Simplified  Click to Translate to Korean  Click to Translate to Arabic  Click to Translate to Russian  Click to Translate to Portuguese  Click to Translate to Myanmar (Burmese)

PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
123456
Forum Home Forum Home > Main Forums > General Discussion
  New Posts New Posts RSS Feed - What caused Japan’s delta to collapse?
  FAQ FAQ  Forum Search   Events   Register Register  Login Login

Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant

What caused Japan’s delta to collapse?

 Post Reply Post Reply
Author
Message
Pixie View Drop Down
Admin Group
Admin Group
Avatar

Joined: June 05 2006
Location: United States
Status: Offline
Points: 19668
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pixie Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: What caused Japan’s delta to collapse?
    Posted: December 02 2021 at 6:52pm

Interesting theory


https://www.iflscience.com/health-and-medicine/delta-variant-may-have-mutated-itself-into-extinction-in-japan-suggest-researchers/


In July,Japan was hit by its largest COVID-19 wave yet. Driven by the introduction of the more infectious Delta variant, cases surged to a record of nearly 26,000 daily cases, over four times that of the wave before it. Then, as quickly as cases rose, they fell once again, and within two months of the peak, cases now rest at around 140 per day. Scientists are aware the rapid rise was due to the Delta variant, but they failed to understand how cases plummeted back down while other nations continue to battle against the virus. 


Now, researchers from Japan’s National Institute of Genetics have proposed that the Delta variant may have fallen victim to its own success – the rapidly-mutating strain may have mutated itself into extinction within Japan. According to the Japan Times, Ituro Inoue and colleagues believe the virus gained a mutation in its error-correcting protein, allowing for genetic errors to accumulate to such a degree that it could no longer replicate. 


While it would likely not be the first time a virus has "self-destructed" under the weight of its own rapid evolution, it is a phenomenon poorly-documented and a lucky escape for the nation.  

“We were literally shocked to see the findings,” Inoue told The Japan Times in an interview.  


“The delta variant in Japan was highly transmissible and keeping other variants out. But as the mutations piled up, we believe it eventually became a faulty virus and it was unable to make copies of itself. Considering that the cases haven’t been increasing, we think that at some point during such mutations it headed straight toward its natural extinction.” 


The idea began when the researchers delved into the genomic profiles of the Delta variant and compared them to the Alpha variants. The expectation was that the Delta variant would be extremely diverse, with multiple lines branching out from the original strain. Instead, they discovered the Delta variant actually had just two major groups, before it seemed to abruptly halt. The Delta variant, at least in Japan, was no longer mutating and diverging into sublineages.  


Looking deeper, the researchers examined the viral protein nsp14. This protein has been previously shown to be a proofreading enzyme in RNA viruses – that is to say every time the genetic code of the virus replicates, nsp14 scans through the newly-created genetic material to make sure no errors have cropped up. Mutations in proofreading enzymes spell disaster for organisms that don’t replicate often, so in a virus (which enters the cell, replicates into thousands of virions, and bursts from the host cell in around 10 hours), a faulty enzyme would spell utter catastrophe. 


They found multiple genetic changes at a site within nsp14, called A394V. These mutations appear to contribute to a crippled virus that is unable to replicate, which could explain how the Delta variant simply vanished from Japan in a matter of months.  


The theory is certainly interesting but doesn’t quite explain why the crippled virus would outcompete the dominant strain. There are of course other explanations – Japan has one of the highest vaccination rates and people are extremely disciplined at wearing masks, meaning outbreaks in populated areas are likely to be quashed fast. However, it certainly highlights a possible reason behind the decline in cases, and even suggests a possible therapeutic against RNA viruses.

Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 63537
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 02 2021 at 9:45pm

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table ; Japan cases (still) -10%, last week 804, this week 726...Japan deaths -38%, last week 16, this week 10. 

DJ-I would "love to believe" the "Delta self-destructive-variant"theory....but I prefer  the claim high level of vaccinations in combination with (clear) restrictions may be doing the job....also Japan had border restrictions...

Maybe Japan-in that way may compare with Cuba...cases -41% (Cuba population 11, 3 million, Japan population 126 million almost) last week 1,829, this week 1,080...deaths -40% from 10 to 6...(so <1 death per day). 

Israel however may be showing not good enough border control means Omicron exploding...cases +78%, last week 1,888 -this week 3,363....

However the good news is we may be able to limit this pandemic-at least with Delta-with vaccines AND restrictions AND border control...

Omicron could change that picture...one single case can explode even with very high vaccination and restrictions...for that matter China may have to go even more extreme to remain "Zero-CoViD"...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
KiwiMum View Drop Down
Moderator
Moderator
Avatar

Joined: May 29 2013
Status: Offline
Points: 25905
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 02 2021 at 9:56pm

There was also a move in Japan towards using Ivermectin and anyone was allowed to import it if they wished, and any doctor was allowed to prescribe it.

"Once you've decided that something's absolutely true, you've closed your mind on it, and a closed mind doesn't go anywhere. Question everything. That's what education's all about." ~ David Eddings
Back to Top
Pixie View Drop Down
Admin Group
Admin Group
Avatar

Joined: June 05 2006
Location: United States
Status: Offline
Points: 19668
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pixie Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 03 2021 at 6:12pm

https://www.iflscience.com/health-and-medicine/fact-check-japan-has-not-ditched-covid-vaccines-for-ivermectin/


There are claims circulating on social media that Japan has abandoned its vaccine rollout and focused on treating COVID-19 with ivermectin, resulting in infections disappearing “almost overnight.” This is totally untrue. Japan has not halted the use of COVID-19 vaccines, nor has the country stated that ivermectin is an authorized treatment for COVID-19. 

The false claim was first pushed by Hal Turner Radio Show, a show which PolitiFact says promotes “conspiracy theories and hate speech.” A headline on the show’s website reads: “Japan drops vax rollout, goes to Ivermectin, ENDS COVID almost overnight.”

Back to Top
KiwiMum View Drop Down
Moderator
Moderator
Avatar

Joined: May 29 2013
Status: Offline
Points: 25905
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 04 2021 at 12:25pm

Pixie, I didn't say that Japan had abandoned their vaccine rollout. What I said was that in Japan doctors were allowed to prescribe Ivermectin if they wished to. The Japanese government has not started to recommend Ivermectin as a covid cure but instead, as from 13 August, they have removed restrictions on Ivermectin and allowed doctors to use their own judgement to prescribe if as they see fit. Maybe it's just coincidence that within 2 weeks of this change in policy, Covid rates in Japan plummeted. And maybe it's not.

"Once you've decided that something's absolutely true, you've closed your mind on it, and a closed mind doesn't go anywhere. Question everything. That's what education's all about." ~ David Eddings
Back to Top
 Post Reply Post Reply
  Share Topic   

Forum Jump Forum Permissions View Drop Down