Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
What evidence do we use that 2nd wave |
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Usk
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Location: Virginia Status: Offline Points: 7325 |
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Posted: July 01 2020 at 10:09am |
Usk
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Location: Virginia Status: Offline Points: 7325 |
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Graph to see US scroll down and move curser to https://weather.com/coronavirus/l/38.9806,-77.1008 |
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EdwinSm,
Moderator Joined: April 03 2013 Status: Offline Points: 24065 |
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For a second wave, usually there would be the need for a trough after the first wave. It looks to me that initial lockdown started to produce some results, but the improvement was slow. It looks as if the ending of the lockdown came too soon (that is the virus was still widely circulating in the community allowing a rapid rise). The UK has been harder hit that the USA when considering deaths per population (UK 66/100,000; USA 38/100,000 as of end of June), but the UK seems to be following more of a wave pattern My personal views are that apart from political problems to a lot of the response to this virus, the USA has structural problems (very expensive health system that does not cover the whole population, few safe guards to help the unemployed) that have forced the country to open up too fast. These structural problems are the result of choices made over decades, and unfortunately they are causing problems now that will do great damage to the USA. Interestingly, although I don't have a graph for it to show you, it seems that Canada has followed a more wave like path than the States has done (its recent numbers are quite low). Also the death rate in Canada is much lower (23/100,000), despite having a very long shared boundary. |
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KiwiMum
Chief Moderator Joined: May 29 2013 Status: Offline Points: 29680 |
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I agree with you on this. I think that with a pandemic (any pandemic, not just this one), any country hoping to manage it and limit it's impact on it's population needs to offer 2 things: 1, free and unrestricted testing, and 2. free and unrestricted medical treatment, isolation and quarantining as required. The governments simply have to take the cost of it on the chin and provide for all. Unfortunately, some countries aren't doing this. |
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Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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