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| Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic since 2005; Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic Discussion Forum. |
What to Expect in a Pandemic |
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Kilt5 
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 Topic: What to Expect in a PandemicPosted: January 08 2021 at 3:16am |
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We can expect 25% or 30% of the population to be infected. We can expect 1% of the population to die. |
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WitchMisspelled
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Posted: January 08 2021 at 3:57am |
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Not sure where those stats came from, but have they proven out with Covid thus far? |
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Technophobe
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Posted: January 08 2021 at 4:32am |
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Current statistics show less than 1% of the infected die. However this disease is very infectious, has increased its infectiousness with the UK strain and has become more deadly in the South African strain. So that could rise. Also it is less than 1% deadly but puts many of its hosts in hospital and on oxygen for VERY, VERY long periods. Consequently, as hospitals fill up, the death rate rises further and the death rate from other, now untreated, diseases rises too. Luckily, coronaviruses do not mutate particularily frequently (by viral standards) but the more hosts a virus has, the more chances to mutate it gets and this virus has a multitude of hosts, both human and animal. So we simply do not know what it will do next. It could develop an even less deadly but yet more contagious strain and immunise everyone against its nastier ancestor, or develop a killer strain and become the slate-wiper we all fear. WE DO NOT KNOW. |
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Believers don't need proof and sceptics won't accept proof.
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AndyPOW
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Posted: January 08 2021 at 9:55am |
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The current IFR in western countries is around 1.15%. The mortality rate (fatalities/population) will be something lower than that, likely quite a bit lower. It would be excellent to only have 25-30% of the population get infected. But as Technophobe stated, we don't know. |
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"Every thing looks great, until you think." Dr. Al Bartlett
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Kilt5
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Posted: January 08 2021 at 1:01pm |
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They came from learning about and understanding what a pandemic is. 100 million Americans is about a third and 3.3 million is about 1% This pandemic is no joke and has only just started. 1 the virus mutates and is more infectious and will if it hasn't already, mutated around the vaccines 2 the hospital system will collapse - is collapsing 3 the virus will become deadlier - SARS was 10% fatality rate People not wearing masks is only making it worse - wear a mask or die - avoid other people or die its that simple |
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Dutch Josh
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Posted: January 08 2021 at 2:08pm |
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When you look at the statistics now [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ in cases per million-Andorra-between France and Spain-almost 110,000 cases. Czechia-the first "real country" at #6 has over 75,000 cases per million. The US is at #7 going up fast with-very likely-a mix of variants-67,340 cpm=now 6,7% already did see infection. If you look at 1% of US population would be 3,32 million at this moment the US already had over 376,000 deaths... In other words, 30% of population getting infected may be underestimating what is happening. With hospitals at breaking point-already for the US over 4000 deaths per day (=400,000 in 100 days-but for the coming weeks I expect numbers to go up) the tested/reported Covid deaths may reach 1%... I think for every reported Covid death there is also an (extra) non Covid death...so you have to look at excess deaths..Vaccinations-for the short term will not change this outlook..NPI/Lockdown, social distancing can save lives... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Kilt5
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Posted: January 08 2021 at 2:36pm |
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I believed many years ago a pandemic was coming after reading a short story about 1918 I have learned everything I could about pandemics and prepared This is what I prepared for |
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AndyPOW
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Posted: January 08 2021 at 4:15pm |
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I hear you. We did as well. Started with an article in 2002 from the NYT Science section on H5N1 that my Mom sent me. We got serious in 2010 when we bought a remote homestead on a remote island in SE Alaska. Been working on it like the devil is behind us ever since. |
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"Every thing looks great, until you think." Dr. Al Bartlett
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WitchMisspelled
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Posted: January 08 2021 at 6:07pm |
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NYT also printed an article about H5N1 in 1997. Made the hair on my neck stand up. |
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Technophobe
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Posted: January 08 2021 at 7:17pm |
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We are currently a statistical anomaly. 99.9% of all the known species are now extinct. Flu is still the no.1 suspect for a slate wiper. It is still the most likely. But there are other potential suspects. Covid is a tiny minnow in a big sea, with sharks, barracuda, killer whales and kraken. It could still turn out to be the one with motive and no alibi though. There is a rather sad story of a guy killed by his goldfish. (The idiot tried to swallow it and choked. Served him right; I felt sorry for the fish.) Wierder things can happen. None of us knows what our killer will be. Best watch all of them. |
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Believers don't need proof and sceptics won't accept proof.
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AndyPOW
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Posted: January 08 2021 at 7:52pm |
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Didn't they make a movie out of it? A Fish Called Wanda? |
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"Every thing looks great, until you think." Dr. Al Bartlett
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Kilt5
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Posted: January 09 2021 at 2:29am |
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This is what we have prepped for and planned for and its here This pandemic is no joke and has only just started. 1 the virus mutates and is more infectious and will if it hasn't already, mutated around the vaccines 2 the hospital system will collapse - is collapsing 3 the virus will become deadlier - SARS was 10% fatality rate People not wearing masks is only making it worse - wear a mask or die - avoid other people or die |
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Kilt5
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Posted: January 12 2021 at 11:19am |
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This pandemic is just getting worse and worse and worse. Where will it end? |
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Kilt5 wrote: