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Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant

What will kill us ?

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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    Posted: October 28 2022 at 10:32pm

DJ, a non-expert view....

In pandemic-breakfast yesterday I wrote -my idea- we ware moving from a "red tag"  Life-threatening injuries [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triage_tag[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triage_tag to a black  Pain medication only, until death one....In latest news I did put some updates on ebola, cholera, "MPX-MonkeyPoX"....CoViD is far from over, TB(c), flu (H5N1) is on the rise....

I do have a limited history background-NOT a medical one...

Infectious diseases are not new...We did see flu-pandemics killing up to 2 million people in an outbreak not that far away in history...Good public healthcare, vaccines, hygiene does save lots of lives...But one needs a functioning economy, "good politics" to have good healthcare for enough people to matter...

-Energy/currency crises

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/political/top-dems-urge-biden-nationalize-oil-gas-industry[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/political/top-dems-urge-biden-nationalize-oil-gas-industry ;

The energy crisis is worsening. The U.S. has fewer than 30 days of diesel and other distillate fuels, the lowest level since 1945. Supplies are so low that there will be shortages and price spikes within six months unless the U.S. enters recession, experts warn. In response, the Biden administration is releasing more oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. But the reserves are of crude oil, not refined oil products such as diesel. And the releases are stifling investment in future oil production. “People are depleting their emergency stocks,” warned Saudi Arabia’s energy minister earlier this week. “Losing emergency stocks may become painful in the months to come.”

In response, influential Democrats, including a leading U.S. Senate candidate, a former Department of Energy official, and an influential energy expert, are urging the U.S. government to socialize America’s oil and gas firms.

-

One is a piece of legislation called “NOPEC,” which passed the Senate Judiciary Committee in May.

The bill would change U.S. antitrust law to revoke a policy of sovereign immunity, which protects OPEC+ members from lawsuits. If NOPEC became law, the U.S. attorney general could sue Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members in court. The result could be a disruption of global supplies of oil and other commodities if nations retaliated against the U.S.

The other is an effort led by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to cap the price of Russian oil sold on global markets, which I and many other experts have warned since June is unworkable, because China and India have said they would circumvent it, and could backfire, resulting in far higher oil prices.

Last week, analysts with Rapidan Energy told the same Houston conference that the December 5 implementation of the Russian price cap could reduce global supplies of oil by 1.5 million barrels per day. Such an amount would create an oil price shock.

Earlier this month, Bordoff told the World Economic Forum, which has called for a “Great Reset” to quickly move from fossil fuels to renewables, that climate change required a “massive transition” that is “going to be messy, it’s going to be disruptive.”

DJ Also in Europe growing pressure for more political control over energy. Some countries seem to be able to make faster changes in energy. NL had to reduce its gas-exploration in the north of the country (due to earthquakes) so NL was already on its way to "diversify"...(If you want to name that "great reset" go ahead...it is the proces that matters...not the name...). 

My view [url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/methane-keeps-rising.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/methane-keeps-rising.html for climate change reasons we have no other option than make major changes in a short time....In my view that also would mean a very major reduction in fossil fuel consumption (cars, airtraffic, some industries ). Limiting time in the shower or no lights on monuments will not do the job...

[url]https://thesaker.is/everybody-wants-to-hop-on-the-brics-express/[/url] or https://thesaker.is/everybody-wants-to-hop-on-the-brics-express/ ;

The SCO, led by China and Russia, is a pan-Eurasian institution originally focused on counter-terrorism but now increasingly geared towards geoeconomic – and geopolitical – cooperation. BRICS, led by the triad of Russia, India, and China overlaps with the SCO agenda geoeconomically and geopoliticallly, expanding it to Africa, Latin America and beyond: that’s the concept of BRICS+, analyzed in detail in a recent Valdai Club report, and fully embraced by the Russia-China strategic partnership.

The report weighs the pros and cons of three scenarios involving possible, upcoming BRICS+ candidates:

First, nations that were invited by Beijing to be part of the 2017 BRICS summit (Egypt, Kenya, Mexico, Thailand, Tajikistan).

Second, nations that were part of the BRICS foreign ministers’ meeting in May this year (Argentina, Egypt, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Nigeria, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Thailand).

Third, key G20 economies (Argentina, Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Turkiye).

And then there’s Iran, which has already already shown interest in joining BRICS.

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has recently confirmed that “several countries” are absolutely dying to join BRICS. Among them, a crucial West Asia player: Saudi Arabia.

What makes it even more astonishing is that only three years ago, under former US President Donald Trump’s administration, Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman (MbS) – the kingdom’s de fact ruler – was dead set on joining a sort of Arab NATO as a privileged imperial ally.

Diplomatic sources confirm that the day after the US pulled out of Afghanistan, MbS’s envoys started seriously negotiating with both Moscow and Beijing.

DJ..a change in global energy consumption brings a change in energy production...the "petro-dollar" is history...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrial_Revolution[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrial_Revolution One can claim the "Industrial revolution" is an ongoing proces...computer/robet technology already one big change, low pay countries working for rich countries another shift in the last 40 years...Of course the start of the industrial revolution-steam engines-1760-also started a new form of colonial expansion and exploration...

How do energy/currency changes kill ? 

Hyperinflation....already healthcare in Europe (soon in the US) is facing way to high energy bills. And it is only starting....For the Euro-zone I believe the inflation for 2022 is expected to be 12%, 2023 would be 8%....limiting it to 8% only will be possible if we decrease drasticly energy consumption to bring down marketprices...or "nationalize the markets"....

(I think the UK once "nationalized BP to find out BP did take over the UK....Energy companies have such a large budget they may be more powerfull then most countries...). 

I think energy prices will go up further...the estimate of 8% inflation-Eurozone-2023 is "very optimistic"....For the EU lots of energy deals still are made in the US$...so 1 Euro is now below 1 $ (even the UK pound may be moving there...). 

Non-western countries want to get rid of dollars, Euro's pounds, yen....switch to their own financial system. This could result in "western currencies"  becoming as good as worthless...fiat-currencies-printing extra money to keep "the system going" did take away any basics for western currencies...We are now in the phase were these currencies may "keep some value" at gunpoint...Forcing other countries-NATO-to still use western currencies for trade...It did work in Libya, Iraq, but we are at the end of that road...

And the end of that road may go nuclear...with the US as the only country using nuclear weapons against an enemy (Japan-august 1945-as a warning for stalin...). 

So socio-economic collapse kill....Maybe we can prevent nuclear war...preventing civil wars is another issue....

-Climate change

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/10/28/netherlands-sets-new-warm-weather-record-oct-28-weekend-set-new-record-highs[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/10/28/netherlands-sets-new-warm-weather-record-oct-28-weekend-set-new-record-highs 

DJ-Food production and droughts/floodings do not mix....With a global food (and fertilizer) market shortages in one region could get balanced by extra production in other regions...That global food market is (also) close to collapse....[url]https://www.wri.org/research/state-climate-action-2022[/url] or https://www.wri.org/research/state-climate-action-2022 ;

Getting on track by 2030 will require an enormous acceleration in effort.

To achieve these near-term, 1.5°C-aligned targets, the world must:

  • Phase out coal power generation six times faster — equivalent to retiring 925 average-sized coal plants per year.  
  • Improve the energy intensity of building operations five times faster for commercial buildings and seven times faster for residential buildings.
  • Lower the amount of carbon dioxide emitted per tonne of cement produced over ten times faster.
  • Expand public transportation systems, including metros, light-rail trains, and bus rapid transit networks, across the world’s highest-emitting cities six times faster.
  • Reduce the annual rate of deforestation 2.5 times faster — equivalent to avoiding deforestation across an area roughly equivalent to all arable land in Switzerland each year.
  • Shift to healthier, more sustainable diets five times faster by lowering per capita consumption of ruminant meat to the equivalent of 2 burgers per week across Europe, the Americas, and Oceania. 
  • Phase out public financing for fossil fuels five times faster — equivalent to reducing subsidies by an average of $69 billion per year.

DJ...some climate experts claim we may already be getting (to) close to a 2C increase...feed back processes will push the temperature [url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html ;Summary: Total global temperature rise could be as much as 18.44°C by 2026

In summary, adding up all the warming associated with the above elements results in a total potential global temperature rise (land and ocean) of more than 18.44°C in a matter of years, by as early as 2026.

science does not agree on such an extreme temperature rise in such a short time...however [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_growth[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_growth in climate change is accepted science...But it is a complex proces...

DJ-I would love to believe ice moving from Greenland into the ocean may slow down (Arctic) warming...(but less ice on Greenland will bring more seismic activity...) 

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 28 2022 at 10:47pm

part 2,

Climate change melting ice/snow on Greenland, Himalaya, other mountains will disturb the water system...Asia is depending-in a major way-on glaciers for drinking water...Melt water from Greenland may come on top of (warmer-salt) Atlantic Ocean water...It is a 3D-proces...but it will affect fishing, sea life...

[url]https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20220912/climate-change-pandemics-more-common[/url] or https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20220912/climate-change-pandemics-more-common ;

Sept. 12, 2022 – The likelihood of an extreme infectious disease epidemic – similar to the COVID-19 pandemic – could triple in the coming decades, according to a recent study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The chance of someone seeing a pandemic like COVID-19 during their lifetime is about 38%, which could double in the years to come.

The possibility of another pandemic is “going to probably increase because of all of the environmental changes that are occurring,” William Pan, PhD, one of the study authors and an associate professor of global environmental health at Duke University, told ABC News.


DJ...We may already be in that proces...The massive spread of CoViD (infecting at least 3 billion-out of 8 billion people-and over 100 other species) is resulting in less immunity protection for us humans-as a species....[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory  has links to both climate change and-very likely-less immunity post CoViD in (many) hosts....

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015%E2%80%9316_Zika_virus_epidemic[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015%E2%80%9316_Zika_virus_epidemic ; An epidemic of Zika fever, caused by Zika virus, began in Brazil and affected other countries in the Americas from April 2015 to November 2016. The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the end of the epidemic in November 2016, but noted that the virus still represents "a highly significant and long term problem".[2] It is estimated that 1.5 million people were infected by Zika virus in Brazil,[3] with over 3,500 cases of infant microcephaly reported between October 2015 and January 2016.[4] The epidemic also affected other parts of South and North America, as well as several islands in the Pacific.[5]

DJ, MPX cases may now be at confirmed cases about half of the Brazil total Zika-virus number of 1,5 million...

Malaria, cholera were widespread in Europe till 70-80 years ago...malaria is already moving north...Medication, limiting virus spread via insects helped to limit diseases...lyme-disease is however expanding high speed...

We did have public healthcare as a defence against diseases-resulting in an increase of life expectency from 40 years around 1900 to close to 80 years in some rich countries around 2020...But life expectency is decreasing now...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_expectancy[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_expectancy 

Until the middle of the 20th century, infant mortality was approximately 40–60% of the total mortality. Excluding child mortality, the average life expectancy during the 12th–19th centuries was approximately 55 years. If a medieval person survived childhood, they had about a 50% chance of living 50–55 years, instead of only 25–40 years.[5]

DJ [url]https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/nchs_press_releases/2022/20220831.htm[/url] or https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/nchs_press_releases/2022/20220831.htm 

Life expectancy at birth in the United States declined nearly a year from 2020 to 2021, according to new provisional data from the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). That decline – 77.0 to 76.1 years – took U.S. life expectancy at birth to its lowest level since 1996. The 0.9 year drop in life expectancy in 2021, along with a 1.8 year drop in 2020, was the biggest two-year decline in life expectancy since 1921-1923.

also [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_life_expectancy[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_life_expectancy  Japan #1 84,62 years,  NL #22 81,41 UK #28 with 80,9, Cuba #39 78,89 USA #54 77,28 (World Bank-2020 statistics). 

DJ-Can all the factors I mentioned above result in exponential decrease of live expectency ? 

-"politics"

The idea of "privatizing everything" "basics for profit" is resulting in high water prices or low quality water...expensive housing or "hardly a house"...Somehow "politics" has forgotten lessons from the early indistrial age...In the early 19th century industrial workers hardly were able to reach 20...child mortality was extreme...so people had large families...We see that kind of patterns show up again...

Better educated, richer households have less/no children-better health. The more poor, less educated the more children...so a decrease in economic perspectives may result in more poor households with more children getting less care and education...(The "one-child" policy in China is complex-but may have pushed China out of poverty...In the 2020 list China at #59-77.1 years-by now China life expectency may be longer then that of the US...). 

Income inequality means more crime...(the US [url]https://www.statista.com/statistics/191134/reported-murder-and-nonnegligent-manslaughter-cases-in-the-us-since-1990/[/url] or https://www.statista.com/statistics/191134/reported-murder-and-nonnegligent-manslaughter-cases-in-the-us-since-1990/ over 22,000 murders. [url]https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/nchs_press_releases/2021/20211117.htm[/url] or https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/nchs_press_releases/2021/20211117.htm over 100,000 drug related deaths...The US has over 2 million people in prison-<0,5% of its population...25% of ALL prisoners in the world are in US prisons). 

Of course "wars kill"...the Ukraine war may have seen over 400,000 Ukraine military killed (Military Summary). The US Iraq-war may have killed over 1 million Iraq citizens....

Political failure to protect public health, climate, well being for all is "killing us all"...We do not need a nuclear war to see billions die...a combination of diseases, climate/social collapse, poverty, wars already is killing tens of millions each year....

End of part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 29 2022 at 1:41am

part 3

Diseases-and increasing limits to deal with diseases;


Flu is off to an unusually severe start in the US, with the most hospitalizations at this point in the season since the 2009 swine flu pandemic - WaPo


Image

and

Replying to  and 
I was pretty healthy pre-Covid. However, I recently suffered from a pretty bad dose of the flu (negative LFs but who knows) that then became a bad chest infection requiring antibiotics and steroids that has now turned into pleurisy. Covid has wrecked havoc on my immune system.

and








BQ.1* surged up to 27% today says CDC! This should surprise.... absolutely no one that has been following my modeling. BQ estimates falling right in line with my model from almost 4 weeks ago when BQ<2%.  

and [url]https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Increase-in-Tuberculosis-Deaths-During-the-COVID-19-Pandemic-20221027-0020.html[/url] or https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Increase-in-Tuberculosis-Deaths-During-the-COVID-19-Pandemic-20221027-0020.html

The World Health Organization (WHO) said that global TB deaths have seen an increase between 2019 and 2021.


According to the United Nations (UN) agency, the COVID-19 pandemic hampered global efforts to tackle TB. This disease could replace COVID-19 as the world's leading cause of death from a single infectious agent.

DJ...









Monkeypox is back in Los Angeles, California: Switch to table view & all time. Recording started Aug 28. Peak (copies per gram) was Sep 7 at 3,985. Went to zero on Sep 27 until Oct 12 when it started to zoom up again. Currently at 2,293 (copies per gram). http://publichealth.verily.com/#Los%20Angeles,%20CA:MPXV

-

El Ray !😷! P100 + πŸ’‰πŸ’‰πŸ’‰+bivalentπŸ’‰

@elray67
·
#MPXV wastewater data for L.A. updated recently.  Highest reading to date in City of Los Angeles (above prev  highest for LA County), >35000/g. @RolandBakerIII @joaquinlife @lapublichealth @bumblebuzz6

a combination of diseases -long time destroying health-may increase dramaticly...US may have over 30 million Long CoViD cases...A lot of healthcare staff may be dealing with disease and burn out...Inflation/energy costs yet another burden for healthcare-already understaffed...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/vaccines/961677-influenza-other-respir-viruses-h1n1-g4-swine-influenza-t-cell-epitope-analysis-in-swine-and-human-vaccines-and-circulating-strains-uncovers-potential-risk-to-swine-and-humans[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/vaccines/961677-influenza-other-respir-viruses-h1n1-g4-swine-influenza-t-cell-epitope-analysis-in-swine-and-human-vaccines-and-circulating-strains-uncovers-potential-risk-to-swine-and-humans ;

Abstract

Background: Pandemic influenza viruses may emerge from animal reservoirs and spread among humans in the absence of cross-reactive antibodies in the human population. Immune response to highly conserved T cell epitopes in vaccines may still reduce morbidity and limit the spread of the new virus even when cross-protective antibody responses are lacking.
Methods: We used an established epitope content prediction and comparison tool, Epitope Content Comparison (EpiCC), to assess the potential for emergent H1N1 G4 swine influenza A virus (G4) to impact swine and human populations. We identified and computed the total cross-conserved T cell epitope content in HA sequences of human seasonal and experimental influenza vaccines, swine influenza vaccines from Europe and the United States (US) against G4.
Results: The overall T cell epitope content of US commercial swine vaccines was poorly conserved with G4, with an average T cell epitope coverage of 35.7%. EpiCC scores for the comparison between current human influenza vaccines and circulating human influenza strains were also very low. In contrast, the T cell epitope coverage of a recent European swine influenza vaccine (HL03) was 65.8% against G4.
Conclusions: Poor T cell epitope cross-conservation between emergent G4 and swine and human influenza vaccines in the US may enable G4 to spread in swine and spillover to human populations in the absence of protective antibody response. One European influenza vaccine, HL03, may protect against emergent G4. This study illustrates the use of the EpiCC tool for prospective assessment of existing vaccine strains against emergent viruses in swine and human populations.

and

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/961590-who-tag-ve-statement-on-omicron-sublineages-bq-1-and-xbb[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/961590-who-tag-ve-statement-on-omicron-sublineages-bq-1-and-xbb 

Later today we'll get the CDC's weekly Nowcast updateon variants in the United States, which is expected to show the continued growth of Omicron subvariants BQ.1 and BQ.1.1, which have been eroding the dominance of BA.5 for several weeks.


Last weekend, in ECDC Epidemiological Update: Omicron Variant BQ.1 Spread In The EU/EEA, we saw the ECDC's projection that BQ.1 (and its subvariant BQ.1.1) are expected to become dominant in Europe in the weeks ahead.

It is a different story in Asia, where the XBB variant appears to be surging instead. All three are offshoots from previous Omicron variants, and all appear to have transmission and/or immune escape advantages over previous iterations of the virus.


Reassuringly, we've not seen any indication of increased severity (see ECDC graphic at top of page) from either of these variants, but admittedly, we might not spot those sorts of signals until these variants account for a significantly larger percent of new cases.

Overnight the WHO published a statement from theirTAG-VE (Technical Advisory Group on SARS-CoV-2 Virus Evolution) on the BQ.1 and XBB variants (below) which attempts - based on the limited data available - to quantify the risk posed by these emerging variants.

DJ...maybe new variants itself may "look mild" but limit immunity-so other diseases can do more damage....

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/latest-covid-19-infections-increasing-in-the-united-states-data-from-32-out-of-50-states-shows-104,258-new-infections-and-877-deaths-in-the-last-24-ho[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/latest-covid-19-infections-increasing-in-the-united-states-data-from-32-out-of-50-states-shows-104,258-new-infections-and-877-deaths-in-the-last-24-ho urs

and 

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/international-study-finds-that-sars-cov-2-causes-epigenetic-changes-and-transcriptomic-reprogramming-in-monocytes-of-covid-19-patients[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/international-study-finds-that-sars-cov-2-causes-epigenetic-changes-and-transcriptomic-reprogramming-in-monocytes-of-covid-19-patients 

DJ-It would be very welcome if statistics could still do a job....[url]https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps[/url] or https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps excess deaths may be the "best" indicator....








If this figure approx true for other airports, then it is likely that there is at least one passenger infected with covid on most planes. Any reason to think it would be much lower at other airports? So wear a mask when travelling. After all, you might be the infected person.

DJ...stop the spread ? Maybe a good idea ? Not offering free travel to all kind of virusses when we are dealing with several pandemics ? 

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/10/22/rat-nuisance-reports-amsterdam-increasing-every-year[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/10/22/rat-nuisance-reports-amsterdam-increasing-every-year ;

Reports of rats are on the rise in Amsterdam –– and have been higher than ever over the past couple years, according to Het Parool. They are also becoming increasingly resistant to pesticides.

The GGD has been keeping track of rat reports since 2015. In 2019, this number was at 3,409. In 2020, the number of reports suddenly skyrocketed to 5,477, then to 7,329 in 2021. With three quarters of 2022 over, this year is expect to track with the others, according to Het Parool.

DJ...rat(fleas)s do spread diseases...live in sewers....

Again-I would love to believe we can get out of this healthcare crisis...but we are not doing enough...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 29 2022 at 11:14pm

DJ,

A heatwave often kills more people then a hurricane...less spectacular-more deathly....When you look at history civil wars see (much) more deaths then wars between countries...civil wars may also be harder to solve-can result in breaking up a country. Of course civil wars may bring other countries interventions...making it all more complex...

There are lots of similarities in how climate disasters, wars and pandemics behave....certain "dynamic processes" may be the same....They all need "food" , transport (of warm air, troops, diseases)....They all are predictable-more or less....H5N1 WILL jump to people seems to be the general idea...question is how (via pigs, pets ? or direct to humans ? Will H5N6, H3N2, H1N1 or another flu-variant influence the process ? ) and when (winter north part of the globe most likely....in general more wild birds on the move spreading the virus). 








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DJ, there is a political crisis in lots of countries-with politics supposed to lead us out of the swamp.....








Monkeypox outbreak is ebbing—but why exactly? https://science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adf4961#.Y1sf0l4CoUY.twitter Excellent commentary in  by  "Immunity acquired through infections in the most sexually active men may be the biggest factor for the decline in new infections in Europe and the US/Canada"

link; [url]https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adf4961#.Y1sf0l4CoUY.twitter[/url] or https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adf4961#.Y1sf0l4CoUY.twitter DJ-Herd immunity may work for (this type of ?) MPX...However the real number of MPX cases most likely will be much higher then the reported number...in general MPX is seen as "most mild" ...Risk is it will keep spreading and mutating...the more deathly Congo-variant is next for spreading ? [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/monkeypox/brazil-first-case-of-monkeypox-in-a-dog/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/monkeypox/brazil-first-case-of-monkeypox-in-a-dog/ what about spread in animals ? 

On CoViD lots of-in itself-good news;

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/u-s-study-shows-that-upper-room-germicidal-ultraviolet-c-irradiation-ur-guv-devices-effective-in-eradicating-aerosolized-sars-cov-2-in-enclosed-areas[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/u-s-study-shows-that-upper-room-germicidal-ultraviolet-c-irradiation-ur-guv-devices-effective-in-eradicating-aerosolized-sars-cov-2-in-enclosed-areas 

and 

[url]https://apnews.com/article/health-china-shanghai-covid-73054086e649140d3cf6edf77ae4ef73[/url] or https://apnews.com/article/health-china-shanghai-covid-73054086e649140d3cf6edf77ae4ef73

The Chinese city of Shanghai started administering an inhalable COVID-19 vaccine on Wednesday in what appears to be a world first.

The vaccine, a mist that is sucked in through the mouth, is being offered for free as a booster dose for previously vaccinated people, according to an announcement on an official city social media account.

Scientists hope that such “needle-free” vaccines will make vaccination more accessible in countries with fragile health systems because they are easier to administer. They also may persuade people who don’t like getting a shot in the arm to get inoculated.

DJ....the basic point of course is we could have stopped CoViD-19 in january 2020...but we did not...We could have stopped all kinds of variants-but again we did not....We even managed to see MPX spreading while CoViD-pandemic "was over in main stream media" only....

The inhalable vaccine was developed by Chinese biopharmaceutical company CanSino Biologics Inc. as an aerosol version of the company’s one-shot adenovirus vaccine, which uses a relatively harmless cold virus.

The traditional one-shot vaccine has been approved for use in more than 10 markets including China, Hungary, Pakistan, Malaysia, Argentina and Mexico. The inhaled version has received a go-ahead for clinical trials in Malaysia, a Malaysian media report said last month.

Regulators in India have approved a nasal vaccine, another needle-free approach, but it has yet to be rolled out. The vaccine, developed in the U.S. and licensed to Indian vaccine maker Bharat Biotech, is squirted in the nose.

About a dozen nasal vaccines are being tested globally, according to the World Health Organization.

China has relied on domestically developed vaccines, primarily two inactivated vaccines that have proven effective in preventing death and serious disease but less so than the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines at stopping the spread of the disease.

Chinese authorities also have not mandated vaccination — entering an office building or other public places requires a negative COVID-19 test, not proof of vaccination. And the country’s strict “zero-COVID” approach means that only a small proportion of the population has been infected and built immunity that way, compared to other places.

DJ...in a propaganda war "Zero-CoViD" "would not be effective" ("economy"....) "western freedom for virus spread" would be so much better....Even if you take Chinese (and some other Zero CoViD countries Cuba, Vietnam) statistics with a grain of salt the number of cases, deaths, long/chronic CoViD only shows Zero CoViD-stop the spread-is working....

Ventilation does work, limiting travel, masks work.....a "bizarre idea of freedom" is stopping us from getting pandemics under control....

We urgently need to stop this pandemic !!!!! Again-since CoViD is mutating high speed, able to infect all over the body,does decrease immunity, it is a potential mass-killer maybe even worse then the plague. 

Just like we fail to stop "climate change", only manage to get closer to nuclear war we also push global health in the wrong direction....

Again-are humans self-destructive ? Maybe the short-sighted ideology results in "us" behaving that way....

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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part 2, 

To get a grip on pandemics, diseases statistics may be a basic tool. Testing & reporting....[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table ;

Global cases -as far as tested & reported- may be -19%, deaths -15%

Asia cases +6%, deaths -5%

South America cases +12%, deaths +15%

Africa cases +27%, deaths +196% !!!!! (for all of Africa there were only 28 CoViD-deaths reported last week, 83 last 7 days...)

In Asia-India cases-as far as reported- -32%, deaths -17%

DJ-These statistics even as indicators may have only little value....waste water sampling for virusses may give better info.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/935609-discussion-thread-vii-covid-19-endemic-stage?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/935609-discussion-thread-vii-covid-19-endemic-stage?view=stream ;

WHO Director-General's opening remarks at Member State Information Session on COVID-19 and other issues – 27 October 2022

27 October 2022
...
We are turning a corner on the COVID-19 pandemic, but it is not over. More than two million, six hundred thousand new cases were reported in the last week, with 8 562 new deaths.

The end of this pandemic is in sight, but inequity continues to hobble our response.

Nearly one-third of the world’s population has not yet received a single dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, including over half of health workers and about two-thirds of older people in low-income countries.

This vaccination gap imperils the global recovery and puts us all at risk.

The danger of new, more dangerous variants that can evade our vaccines is real.

We must not become complacent.

===

https://www.who.int/director-general...7-october-2022

DJ Also flutrackers has discussion on safety of vaccines for children;https://nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2209367… Curious why this isn’t getting more attention… According to Moderna themselves: “serious adverse events” affected 1 in 200 toddlers. But they still concluded the mRNA vaccine was “safe in children.”

I think non-pharma interventions should be the main strategy; STOP THE SPREAD !!! Vaccines only can play a limited role-may help limiting severe disease for some, some time...

MPX;

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory only updated once a week ? 

Ebola;

Uganda-ebola [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Uganda_Ebola_outbreak[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Uganda_Ebola_outbreak per oct.27 there are 121 confirmed, 21 probable cases-total 142 with 32 confirmed, 21 probable deaths...So 142 cases resulting in 53 deaths CFR 35% ? But the outbreak is ongoing-very likely to spread...

One can compare the Uganda-ebola outbreak a.o. with;

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebola_virus_epidemic_in_Sierra_Leone[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebola_virus_epidemic_in_Sierra_Leone ;

An Ebola virus epidemic in Sierra Leone occurred in 2014, along with the neighbouring countries of Guinea and Liberia. On 18 March 2014, Guinean health officials announced the outbreak of a mysterious hemorrhagic fever "which strikes like lightning".[2] It was identified as Ebola virus disease and spread to Sierra Leone by May 2014.[3] The disease was thought to have originated when a child from a bat-hunting family contracted the disease in Guinea in December 2013.[4]

At the time it was discovered, it was thought that Ebola virus was not endemic to Sierra Leone or to the West African region and that the epidemic represented the first time the virus was discovered there.[5] However, some samples taken for Lassa fever testing turned out to be Ebola virus disease when re-tested for Ebola in 2014, showing that Ebola had been in Sierra Leone as early as 2006.[6]

DJ cases 14,061, deaths 3,955 so CFR just under 30% /

and [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebola_virus_epidemic_in_Liberia[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebola_virus_epidemic_in_Liberia ;

An epidemic of Ebola virus disease occurred in Liberia from 2014 to 2015, along with the neighbouring countries of Guinea and Sierra Leone. The first cases of virus were reported by late March 2014.[2] The Ebola virus, a biosafety level four pathogen, is an RNA virus discovered in 1976.[3]

Before the outbreak of the Ebola epidemic the country had 50 doctors for its population of 4.3 million. The country's health system was seriously weakened by a civil war that ended in 2003.[4]

DJ cases 10,675, deaths 4,809 CFR over 45%...shortage of medical care may have pushed the CFR up...

also [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebola_virus_epidemic_in_Guinea[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebola_virus_epidemic_in_Guinea ;

An epidemic of Ebola virus disease in Guinea from 2013 to 2016 represents the first ever outbreak of Ebola in a West African country. Previous outbreaks have been confined to several countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.[2]

The epidemic, which began with the death of a two-year-old boy, was part of a larger Ebola virus epidemic in West Africa which spread through Guinea and the neighboring countries of Liberia and Sierra Leone, with minor outbreaks occurring in SenegalNigeria, and Mali. In December 2015, Guinea was declared free of Ebola transmission by the U.N. World Health Organization,[3] however further cases continued to be reported from March 2016.[4] The country was again declared as Ebola-free in June 2016.[5]

DJ cases 3,806...deaths 2,535 so CFR almost 70%....lasted 3 years....

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebola#1976[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebola#1976 Sudan 284 cases, 151 deaths....also [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_Zaire_Ebola_virus_outbreak[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_Zaire_Ebola_virus_outbreak 318 cases, 280 deaths show limited spread (as far as detected) high CFR....

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Ebola_outbreaks[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Ebola_outbreaks starts with 1976...however a Roman expedition may have resulted in an ebola-linked (???) [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plague_of_Cyprian[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plague_of_Cyprian in between 249 to 262....

-Infectious diseases have always been around. Climate change and high speed transports increase the risks of infectious diseases....DJ-I think in the present global health crisis stopping spread of diseases should be priority #1 ! You do not want co-infections of CoViD and flu....Ebola in Haïti, Yemen, Somalia, Ukraïne would be a horror scenario....

For ebola, MPX, most types of flu we-at least-see a form of "herd immunity" -after infection-survival-there may be (limited) immunity....

To end this part 2 a Dutch link; [url]https://www.gld.nl/nieuws/7795336/vaccineer-pluimvee-en-koop-boeren-uit-zegt-deze-viroloog[/url] or https://www.gld.nl/nieuws/7795336/vaccineer-pluimvee-en-koop-boeren-uit-zegt-deze-viroloog on "Avian Flu" in NL....

In 1960 there were 5 billion poultry-birds...now it is 35 billion worldwide. NL has 100 million poultry birds (6 million already killed in this wave of (most) H5N1)....6x the average for Europe (=EU)...One of the problems in vaccination of poultry is it may have to be done by spreading the vaccines via the air...may not be very effective. Another problem is -EU rules- vaccinated birds (and their eggs) can not be sold....Part of the NL strategy may be de-concentration of poultry farms...but also a decrease of poultry...

DJ-Pigs may be another "mixing vessel" for all kinds of diseases...Decrease of meat consumption (meat tax) may be a way to decrease pandemic risks....But we also need better air quality, healthier people/animals....A decrease of anti-biotics usage...

End of part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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DJ, 

[url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html ;

How can the problems of war, climate collapse and famine best be addressed? 

Earlier this year, the U.N. issued a warning about famine, pointing out that war is compounding the problems of climate disruption and famine, adding that the "main costs to farmers are fertilizers and energy". The U.N. statement follows many news media reports about the rising cost of living.  


How can these problems best be addressed? Two sets of feebates can best accomplish agriculture reform and a rapid transition to clean, renewable energy, as has been discussed in many earlier posts and as is discussed in more detail below. 

-

Air Taxis and Urban Redesign can further facilitate the necessary transformation

Air taxis can be an important component of the transformation of the way we travel, live, work and eat.

This doesn't have to be an instant shift. In existing cities, there already is a strong and growing movement to restrict the use of cars in city centers, and to instead add more walkways and bikeways. In this case, the roads will still be there, it's just their usage that changes. Another example is pipes. Many cities want to disconnect pipes that now supply natural gas to buildings, as it makes more sense to use electricity instead. The pipes will still be there, they just won't be used anymore, if at all. Digging up the pipes may make sense, but this may take some effort and time and it's therefore important that this issue is not used as an excuse to delay the rapid transition to the use of clean energy that is so urgently needed.

It's important to look at longer-term and more radical redesign. The transition toward greater use of air taxis enables space previously used for roads to instead be used for more walkways and bikeways, as well as for trees, community gardens, etc. This should be incorporated as part of wider and longer-term planning and redesign of urban areas.

DJ....to get out of climate collapse, pandemics we urgently need to change the way we live....There can be discussion on how much time there may be...there should not be discussion on the urgent need for change....

-US plans for nuclear weapons in Finland, Taiwan, South Korea, NATO expansionism is pushing the world into the direction of nuclear war. Politicians-for-sale both in the US, UK and Europe are the main reason for growing massive public unrest. [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/massive-protest-czechs-targets-russia-sanctions-high-prices[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/massive-protest-czechs-targets-russia-sanctions-high-prices ...more sanctions on Russian diesel will further worsen the western energy crisis...solved by buying more energy from Türkiye, India, Saudi Arabia/Gulf States (made up of (mixed) Russian energy-oil/gas...Russia also -in reaction to western sanctions- increased its refinery capacity...diesel, kerosine may not be traceble to its source-get mixed with middle east fossil fuels...Outcome of the "western sanctions" is Russia selling energy no longer direct but indirect to "the west"...also the US is running out of energy...). 

-Non-Pharma-Interventions and "main stream politics/media" do not mix....pretending we can vaccinate ourselves out of-by now several- healthcrisis...while transporting all kind of diseases all over the globe....[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-taiwanese-study-shows-inhaled-ciclesonide-reduces-risk-of-mortality-and-need-for-mechanical-ventilation-in-hospitalized-covid-19-patients[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-taiwanese-study-shows-inhaled-ciclesonide-reduces-risk-of-mortality-and-need-for-mechanical-ventilation-in-hospitalized-covid-19-patients , the use of UV-C to kill virusses in a closed space, nasal/airspray vaccines are very welcome steps...but not available soon in a scale needed to restore "global public health".....








Yet new booster uptake—our only “strategy” apart from watching—is ~5% in the US, & no one seems perturbed. Politicians seem determined never to revive NPIs. They see Long Covid and...shrug. 9/

and






Gregg Gonsalves

@gregggonsalves
·
More incoherence from @WhiteHouse#LongCOVID is a problem, but we are helpless to do anything to prevent more #COVID19 cases. Just get vaccinated and pray (and yes, <5% are up-to-date on the latest boosters), so we can't even get that together. JFC. twitter.com/TIME/status/15…

remind me of

Kevin Hester

The UN said in 1989 that we had a decade to avoid dangerous climate change, they are saying the same thing 33 yrs later.

DJ....climate collapse, fiat currencies, economic inequality, healthcrises getting worse are the outcome of bad politics kicking cans down the road now for decades....Politicians, scientists, press-for sale will NOT solve our problems and only serve a rich-global-elite getting even more rich....

Pandemics are part of climate change....dealing with pandemics, climate disasters need investments in public health (it is OUR tax money !) not "privatizing" it.....

I can not discuss pandemics without underlining the basic problem is political.....(and politicians do no longer represent the people but the lobby-ists...). 

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Part 2

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero-COVID[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero-COVID

Zero-COVID, also known as COVID-Zero and "Find, Test, Trace, Isolate and Support" (FTTIS), is a public health policy that has been implemented by some countries during the COVID-19 pandemic.[1][a] In contrast to the living with COVID-19 strategy, the zero-COVID strategy is one "of control and maximum suppression".[1] It involves using public health measures such as contact tracingmass testingborder quarantinelockdowns, and mitigation software in order to stop community transmission of COVID-19 as soon as it is detected. The goal of the strategy is to get the area back to zero new infections and resume normal economic and social activities.[1][3]

A zero-COVID strategy consists of two phases: an initial suppression phase in which the virus is eliminated locally using aggressive public health measures, and a sustained containment phase, in which normal economic and social activities resume and public health measures are used to contain new outbreaks before they spread widely.[3] This strategy has been utilized to varying degrees by AustraliaBhutan,[4][5] Atlantic and Northern Canada,[6] mainland ChinaHong Kong,[7] Macau,[8] New ZealandNorth KoreaSingaporeScotland,[9] South Korea,[10] Taiwan,[11] Tonga,[12] and Vietnam.[13][14] In late 2021, due to challenges with the increased transmissibility of the Delta and Omicron variants, and also the arrival of COVID-19 vaccines, most countries stopped pursuing zero-COVID. As of October 2022, mainland China,[15] Macau,[16] and North Korea[17] are still pursuing a zero-COVID strategy.

Experts differentiate between zero-COVID, which is an elimination strategy, and mitigation strategies that attempt to lessen the effects of the virus on society, but which still tolerate some level of transmission within the community.[18][3] These initial strategies can be pursued sequentially or simultaneously during the acquired immunity phase through natural and vaccine-induced immunity.[19]

Advocates of zero-COVID have pointed to the far lower death rates and higher economic growth in countries that have pursued elimination during the first 12 months of the pandemic (i.e., prior to widespread vaccination) compared with countries that have pursued mitigation,[18] and argue that swift, strict measures to eliminate the virus allow a faster return to normal life.[18] Opponents of zero-COVID argue that "it's not realistic to eliminate a respiratory virus such as SARS-CoV-2, any more than it is to eliminate the flu or the common cold."[20] To achieve zero-COVID in an area with high infection rates, one review estimated that it would take three months of strict lockdown.[21]

DJ I tried to get a good link for Cuba...[url]https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JTF-10-2020-0187/full/html[/url] or https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JTF-10-2020-0187/full/html ...basic point in Zero CoViD is a very active government....Maybe also important testing may be mandatory, vaccinations often are NOT ! Non Pharma Interventions (masks, isolation of cases-massive testing...)  have to do the job....








Mainland #China reports 479 local symptomatic cases and 2,220 asymptomatic cases on October 30.πŸ”Ό --- #Guangdong 291 + 468πŸ”Ό, most from #Guangzhou#Xinjiang 30 + 358πŸ”Ό #Heilongjiang 3 + 182πŸ”Ό #Shanxi 16 + 169πŸ”Ό #Fujian 12 + 165πŸ”Ό #InnerMongolia 18 + 113πŸ”½ --- Source: NHC

and








JUST IN #China October official #PMI Manufacturing PMI 49.2 [Est.50.0 Prev.50.1] Non-Manufacturing PMI 48.7 [Est.50.1 Prev.50.6] Composite PMI 49.0 [Prev.50.9] #manufacturing #EconTwitter πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ 1/ Thread

yes....zero CoViD has its price...but in the US 24-30 million people may have long CoViD ...does that "price" not matter ? Does "living with CoViD" work ? Where there is NO !!!! group-immunity ? In NL  the Dutch CDC now changed the name from "Long CoViD" to an even more misleading "Post-CoViD"....."Long CoViD" may be the "normal" for lots of CoViD-cases....by now most CoViD patients will have been infected over 4 weeks ago....Denial of "long/chronic CoViD" only increases suffering !








Al-Aly is the best. “We as doctors pretty much ignored the post-viral illness for the last 100 years. We didn’t really study it, we didn’t really track it over time.” Here's to hoping the increased attention & funding for chronic post-viral illnesses is lasting.

DJ, lots of (infectious) diseases have a chronic-long term phase...the medical science world may not have known what to do with it....but has to stop claiming it is "a mental issue".....









New paper: Modeling Complex Systems: A Case Study of Compartmental Models in Epidemiology "Our purpose is to show how assumptions can constrain model outcomes to a narrow portion of the wide landscape of potential epidemic behaviors. 

Another strategy could be limiting the spread of diseases to a region-allowing lots of freedoms in (other) regions...[url]https://www.hindawi.com/journals/complexity/2022/3007864/[/url] or https://www.hindawi.com/journals/complexity/2022/3007864/ 

Again...flu may result in longer term (herd/group) immunity...the major problem with CoViD is that "immunity" is eroded away...giving room to more diseases, CoViD cases....a downward spiral...

"Living with the virus" in fact means accepting a (fast/exponential) growing healthcrisis we can NOT survive....Just like we can NOT survive climate collapse...kicking cans down the road, buying time by creating extra money (next generations, other countries have to pay for that...) has run out as a (lack of) "strategy"....

End of part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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part 3

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ZegZXIMpYk[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ZegZXIMpYk ;

indie_SAGE 28.10.2022

LIVE: How does Covid affect the health of our population? Join us for a discussion, with guests Dr Rae Duncan, Dr. Graham Lloyd-Jones & Prof Nish Chaturvedi, chaired by Dr Helen Salisbury, hosted by Dr Binita Kane & numbers by Dr Duncan Robertson

with;

Time line (since I'm a layperson I've avoided medical terms afap)

 0:30 Intro Dr Helen Salisbury

 1:22  Latest stats Dr Duncan Robertson 

 11:25 Learning from radiologist Dr Graham Lloyd-Jones: blood vessels enflamed

 19:24 Learning from cardiologist Dr Rae Duncan: does recovery from infection still affect the heart?

 33:03 Learning from 48m health records: Prof Nish Traturvedi (Clinical Epidemology

 37:23 Should we be doing anything differently: panel: need to stop Reinfections; more research on effects in children; clean up the air; mask with FFP3; 

 41:10 public questions

 41:28 What is UK excess deaths since the start & how does this compare with other countries?

 44:48 Is there data to support an increase in heart problem & strokes? 

54:15 What can we do to mitigate heart &stroke risks following Covid?

 56:57 Is there a way of calculating risk in order to decide when to wear a mask?

 59:00 What protection do 5-11 yo with 2x vaccs have against new variants, especially for those who are vulnerable? 

1:01:01 Conclusion & close

DJ...very good info ! Also [url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data doing a good job in informing the public....(why the (E)CDC etc. keep doing such a bad job...). 

What we know about immune system dysfunction after covid is not just about vulnerability to infectious diseases, but also inability to stop cancers. But there is also evidence linking to cancer promotion making it a cancer promoting (oncogenic) virus.

and

Mark Ungrin

@Mark_Ungrin
·
Yeah, just not liking this at all. https://journalofinfection.com/article/S0163-4453(22)00469-8/fulltext Speaking with my professional network over the last while, it looks like the cancer people didn't know the virus does this, and the virus people didn't know what a big deal it is.

underline extra;

-a need for better medical cooperation

-STOP THE VIRUS !!!!!

Yanzhong Huang

@YanzhongHuang
·
A Chinese business consultant in a Ted-style talk justified zero-Covid policy by saying that in 10 years the West will be brought to its knees b/c long-Covid, which will decimate most of its labor force.

and








Disabled workers. Not a coincidence. #LongCovid is going to screw us over if we allow #COVID to continue to keep spreading. Downplaying COVID is tantamount to sentencing a generation to a multi-organ debilitating disease. #CovidIsNotOver

We are destroying our future....

The idea that "the virus simply will go away" is anti-science...we have been-in fact-in this pandemic for close to three years...Do we not learn anything ? 

I guess killing your own people with vaccine disinfo and ivermectin disinfo in a pandemic doesn’t help you get re-elected.  blocking me on Twitter didn’t stop his people from being angry at all the countless deaths he caused. Congrats !

End of part three...I was looking at a tweet warning there will be a wave of variants -not one longer term dominant variant- on its way....Catching one variant may NOT protect against the next one....








This is exemplified by the most recent batch of variants such as BA.2.75.2, XBB and BQ.1.1 showing resistance to nearly all approved mAbs. https://twitter.com/BenjMurrell/status/1570862197827567620
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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DJ, (part 1)

There are similarities between "wars" [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/dangerous-escalation-us-deploy-six-nuclear-capable-b-52-bombers-australia[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/dangerous-escalation-us-deploy-six-nuclear-capable-b-52-bombers-australia and pandemics...

Both "need to gain ground", may use trade-routes (Russian "flu" of 1890 followed the new Trans Siberian Railroad" [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans-Siberian_Railway[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans-Siberian_Railway ...DJ However if construction started in 1891 that railway only could have played a limited role...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1889%E2%80%931890_pandemic[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1889%E2%80%931890_pandemic story links it to other railroads, boats etc...) and "develop new ways/strategies" ....("new weapons"). In practice often pandemics and wars are mixed....Social unrest, instability resulting in wars...or wars-refugees, lack of hygiene increasing health issues....

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-hospitals-track-worst-financial-year-decades[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-hospitals-track-worst-financial-year-decades "for profit" healthcare may see a lot of bankruptcies during pandemics--in a time healthcare may be needed most.....The idea of "public healthcare" goes back to the 19th century (based on churches doing a sort of public healthcare much longer-in lots of different ways) and a.o. [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Otto_von_Bismarck#Sickness_Insurance_Law_of_1883[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Otto_von_Bismarck#Sickness_Insurance_Law_of_1883 "fighting socialism"-conservatives pushed for healthcare laws....The military did see heavy losses due to diseases....The idea of "basic public health via law" -in a history perspective- is more "right wing".....

-The idea of a government role in public well being is now much more accepted [url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/10/31/car-means-longer-travel-time-especially-outside-city-centers-planning-office[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/10/31/car-means-longer-travel-time-especially-outside-city-centers-planning-office however how the policies work out in practice is another point...(car, oil lobby much better organized then "bike-promotion" or public transport....). 

So in the CoViD pandemic what role do governments have ? What is priority ? Saving lives or profits ? How to "balance" such a strategy ? The present healthcrisis is the outcome of a wrong risk-assessment on CoViD....

There was a basic idea "infectious diseases" in 2020 are "only a limited risk"....Eventhough there have been warnings for "a next pandemic around the corner" for decades....The idea was "flu" would be the next pandemic...The "good thing" on flu is you get "group/herd immunity"....Somehow that "herdimmunity idea" became dominant in this corona-virus pandemic...even with the knowledge that corona-viral diseases in animals only could be controlled by killing all the animals....

SARS-1 in 2003 should have been seen as a warning...but less travel, better surveilance and in time actions limited SARS-1...MERS was "controlable"...so early 2020 -even with Wuhan-China in lockdown-"politics/science" underestimated the risks....

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/covid-19-universe-questions-time-universal-deceit[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/covid-19-universe-questions-time-universal-deceit may not be "the best" timeline....but the basic problem; experts/politics switching the pandemic story over and over again I think is realistic...

"Vaccinated do no longer need a mask"(biden) was non-science bla-bla....just like "do not test-do not tell" (trump) came close to insane denialism....The idea of "living with the virus" was possible because vaccines would limit most of the damage also proved to be incorrect; resulting in increase of immunity evasion (mutation selection)....NOT stopping free travel for all kinds of variants/other diseases only made matters worse...MPX is just one of the "children" CoViD out-of-control may bring...H5N1 is behaving differently (spreading all year-not just in fall) in 2022...

So we are "in for a hard time"...."politics" now pushing for wars is a "classic reaction" when a crisis runs out of control...Only makes matters worse....

One can learn a lot from history...lots of things are "not new" ...even combinations may not be new...What however is "new" is the high speed transport...any disease could go global within 24 hours....because we give it all the logistics to do so....Transport of diseases to hosts is the weak spot in pandemics...but "we" filled that gap...supplied lots of transport...STOP THE SPREAD...but we support the spread of lots of (long term) diseases "saving the economy"-while destroying that economy....

If you do not learn from the past one keeps repeating the same mistakes over and over again....that is what we-tragically-are doing...

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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part 2,

One of the -sad-conclusions for me-on part 1-is "we keep this pandemic going"....we provide a "feeding ground" for diseases -the exact opposite of what we try to reach...[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/news/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/news/ has a lot of corona-updates in latest news...but Ebola, MPX, other diseases are also making headlines...DJ-again I am NOT an expert...but combination of diseases, re-infections may do most of the damage...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/long-covid-italian-researchers-warn-that-sars-cov-2-induced-thyroid-dysfunction-can-linger-on-for-more-than-a-year[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/long-covid-italian-researchers-warn-that-sars-cov-2-induced-thyroid-dysfunction-can-linger-on-for-more-than-a-year CoViD is causing inflamation of (small) bloodvessels all over the body-causing organ damage all over the body....What looks "mild" could become a problem later on...scleroses of scars may show to be a result years after infection...may show up in hearth, lungs, brain....(and may be easy to miss if it is in "micro clots"...). 








If there's a mutation that will evade existing antibodies, this virus will find it. The speed with which  &  analyze & publish the evasion capabilities of emerging variants is astounding. It's exactly what's needed for timely updating of vaccines. 1/2

and

Yunlong Richard Cao

@yunlong_cao
·
The appearance of Y144del in those BA.5 sublineages is a really bad sign since we know this mutation is extremely good at escaping NTD-neutralizing antibodies. See below, Y144 is located at the epitope center of a specific group of NTD NAbs that are potent against BA.5.

DJ, what I understand is "lots of experts" more or less agree that "only vaccines" can not get us out of this crisis....New vaccines (oral/nasal) may offer some hope...but you need to stop the spread...I think a decrease in (general) immunity may open doors to a tsunami of other diseases....we are only at the start of this healthcrisis...much more action is urgently needed to stop a global disaster....but "we turn our heads"....

[url]https://news.yale.edu/2022/10/27/prime-and-spike-nasal-vaccine-strategy-helps-combat-covid[/url] or https://news.yale.edu/2022/10/27/prime-and-spike-nasal-vaccine-strategy-helps-combat-covid ....in itself are good news....but-again-we have been using vaccines for over a year...it did decrease CoViD-deaths AND increase immune evasion....so the picture is "mixed" at best...we need to do much better to get out of this crisis....

Ebola [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/961767-cidrap-uganda-s-ebola-cases-rise-who-ups-risk-assessment[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/961767-cidrap-uganda-s-ebola-cases-rise-who-ups-risk-assessment

Uganda's Ebola cases rise; WHO ups risk assessment

Filed Under:
Ebola;
Viral Hemorrhagic Fever
Lisa Schnirring | News Editor | CIDRAP News

Oct 31, 2022

As Ebola cases steadily rise in Uganda, with a spate of cases recently reported in Kampala, the World Health Organization (WHO) said the latest developments increase the risk to Uganda and the surrounding region.

Confirmed cases reach 128


Uganda's health ministry is now reporting 128 lab-confirmed cases, up from 109 last week. Also, officials said 34 people have died from their infections, reflecting 4 more since last week. During the early days of the outbreak, officials reported at least 20 suspected cases, all of them fatal.

The most recent two cases were reported from Kassanda district, one of seven affected areas, according to a situation report from the WHO African regional office.

The WHO said in its latest outbreak update, based on information as of Oct 26, that the case fatality rate among lab-confirmed cases is 27.8%.

It said though Uganda has experience responding to Ebola outbreaks and has taken quick actions, the lack of treatments and vaccines for the more rare Sudan Ebola strain that's fueling the outbreak poses a serious public health risk.

The WHO is revising its formal risk assessment, but said given the geographical expansion to urban settings, the risk to Uganda has been elevated from high to very high, and the risk to the region has been increased from low to high. It added that the global risk remains low.

Six neighboring countries have stepped up their readiness actions, including Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, and Tanzania.

In Uganda, outbreak responders are monitoring 1,656 contacts in 10 districts, with a follow-up rate of 88%.

DJ...one of the risks is "more cases is more mutations". Incubation-time supposed to be 3 weeks max. but 5% of cases may show longer incubation....increasing risks of further spread. Do we need more airport-health-checks ? Or should we consider a "travel reduction"-limiting travel to only essential flights ? 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/961771-cidrap-news-scan-for-oct-31-2022-spread-of-antibiotic-resistance-via-animal-transport-%C2%A0-avian-flu-in-us-mexico[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/961771-cidrap-news-scan-for-oct-31-2022-spread-of-antibiotic-resistance-via-animal-transport-%C2%A0-avian-flu-in-us-mexico ;Report highlights animal transport as risk for spread of resistant bacteria


A report last week from the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) suggests steps could be taken to limit the spread of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in food-producing animals during transportation.

Using information from international reports, scientific literature, European legislation, and expert knowledge, scientists with EFSA's Panel on Biological Hazards set out to assess the most significant risk factors associated with the spread of antimicrobial-resistant bacteria and antimicrobial-resistance genes (ARB/ARGs) among poultry, pigs, and cattle when transported from the farm to the slaughterhouse. The panel was also asked to identify preventive measures and control options that could be implemented to reduce the spread of ARB/ARGs between food-producing animals during short and long journeys, and to identify data gaps.

The assessment identified the status that resistance (the presence of ARB/ARGs) of animals pre-transport as one of the main risk factors that almost certainly contributes to the probability of ARB/ARG transmission during transport, followed by increased fecal shedding, insufficient hygiene of vehicles and equipment, exposure to other animals carrying ARB/ARGs, and duration of transport. Among the factors that likely contribute to ARB/ARG spread were airborne transmission within the vehicle, health status of the animal, and high temperature and humidity.

DJ...is it not time yet to decrease meat production/consumption ? 

End of part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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DJ,

War-It looks like "RIC" (Russia-Iran-China) may wait for the outcome of nov.8 US "mid-term" elections. Hope is the outcome of these elections may push the US (and with that NATO) into "more realism". Maybe Israel elections-netanyahu back-also pushing in another direction...In Brazil Lula did not forget the US ended his rule and supported (another) fascist....

In that way it may be "quiet for the storm"....

CoViD;

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/omicron/bf-7/bf-7-another-contender-for-global-domination/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/omicron/bf-7/bf-7-another-contender-for-global-domination/ 

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/omicron/bq-1-1/preprint-neutralizing-antibody-escape-of-bq-1-bq-1-1-ba-4-6-bf-7-and-ba-2-75-2/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/omicron/bq-1-1/preprint-neutralizing-antibody-escape-of-bq-1-bq-1-1-ba-4-6-bf-7-and-ba-2-75-2/ 

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/new-emerging-sars-cov-2-variants-and-sub-lineages-such-as-bq1-1-10,-xbb-3,-ba-4-6-3-and-ch-1-1-are-taking-immune-evasion-to-a-newer-level[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/new-emerging-sars-cov-2-variants-and-sub-lineages-such-as-bq1-1-10,-xbb-3,-ba-4-6-3-and-ch-1-1-are-taking-immune-evasion-to-a-newer-level 

DJ-My non-expert view; exponential growth resulted in a "soup" of new variants able to (at the end) evade ALL immunity....

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/californian-researchers-modify-generic-drug-memantine-to-inhibit-sars-cov-2-and-treat-covid-19-issues[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/californian-researchers-modify-generic-drug-memantine-to-inhibit-sars-cov-2-and-treat-covid-19-issues better (oral/nasal) vaccines are NOT available in large enough numbers...

[url]https://fortune.com/well/2022/11/01/resurgence-deltacron-omicron-delta-covid-fall-winter-wave-coronavirus-autumn-2022-lungs-transmissibility-animals-immunocompromised/[/url] or https://fortune.com/well/2022/11/01/resurgence-deltacron-omicron-delta-covid-fall-winter-wave-coronavirus-autumn-2022-lungs-transmissibility-animals-immunocompromised/ "Delta-cron" , "Flu-Rona" will kill a lot....

On the "healthcare-defense lines"...

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/10/29/people-chronic-illnesses-disabilities-face-especially-high-energy-bills[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/10/29/people-chronic-illnesses-disabilities-face-especially-high-energy-bills also hospitals now have to decide on increasing debts or lay off workers....with healthcare demand expected to be "growing" (=exploding...). 

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/11/01/building-foundations-suffering-damage-due-climate-change[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/11/01/building-foundations-suffering-damage-due-climate-change and [url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/11/01/dutch-government-will-miss-climate-targets-even-new-plans-planning-office[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/11/01/dutch-government-will-miss-climate-targets-even-new-plans-planning-office 

DJ-[url]https://www.gelderlander.nl/arnhem-e-o/bouw-een-nieuwe-stad-bij-arnhem-zegt-deze-demograaf-waarom-br-br~a845d851/[/url] or https://www.gelderlander.nl/arnhem-e-o/bouw-een-nieuwe-stad-bij-arnhem-zegt-deze-demograaf-waarom-br-br~a845d851/ (in Dutch) The west part of NL is under sea-level...the east part above...so suggestion is to increase building houses in the east of NL....(on the long run we may have to give the west part to the sea...). More in general-lower groundwater means damage to foundations of buildings...potential damage for NL may run in the trillions....

Of course H5N1 IS already a pandemic-not yet in humans...most in birds...Ebola so far a growing risk for east/central Africa....MPX cases simply being ignored-most of the times it does not kill...

A few days ago I wrote heatwaves killing more people than hurricanes...More in general "slow processes"-certainly in combination-will kill us...CoViD becoming "endemic" does not make it "better for us"...."post"/"long"/"chronic" CoViD at the end all simply is CoViD....the acute phase may be "over" in 4 weeks most of the time...but CoViD-like diabetes etc. is a long term disease...

Fungal, bacterial infections-on top of viral ones-only worsen the perspectives....

Can we do something ????

Yes !!! We can do a lot...point however is "we" are actively spreading diseases allover the globe....STOP THE SPREAD ! Masks, limit contacts=limit spread....

There is such a lot we can do...and lots of people on an individual level do their best....but politics/government seems to be totally blind....So we will learn our lessons "the very hard way"....

A very dark part 1....I hate to write it...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Trying-in part 2-to balance "doom & gloom" from part 1...








"Another week of very significant excess deaths, continuing the pattern we’ve seen since May. In the last six months there have been 34,000 more deaths than the 2015-19 average." Excess deaths seem to have disappeared from the news cycle, but are still very much there.

and

stuart mcdonald

@ActuaryByDay
·
ONS deaths data has been released for week ending 21 Oct. 2,073 more deaths were recorded in-week compared to the 2015-19 average. That’s 21% more, which is another significant excess. Year-to-date there have been 459,819 deaths recorded which is 7% more than the 2015-19 avg.

DJ [url]https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/[/url] or https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/ excess deaths in Europe-all ages-above 2021, 2020....also US, UK excess deaths above last two pandemic years..."Dying with the virus may be doing better then living with the virus"....[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table at best may provide indication on where a new wave is starting and where it is ending....The reported "CoViD deaths" now only a tiny fraction of excess deaths...the 4 week time-limit no longer is science based....CoViD is a chronic disease...killing millions...








This is one of the many symptoms that Long Covid with POTS can cause. A heart rate over 140 BPM just from taking a shower. It can happen to anyone, vaccinated or not, & reinfections increase the risk. I wish there was something I could do to prevent others from experiencing this.

DJ








Parents, please hear me. Please. Pediatric hospitals are in an unprecedented capacity crisis. Possibly on the verge of avoidable child deaths. Please don't let your kids share indoor air w/ others tonight. Just don't. Extra candy, extra love. No parties. Why?

-









Replying to 
The data make it really plain what is happening. COVID infection is impairing immune system function in some kids for ~8 months. MANY kids have had COVID in the last 8 months. Then they get RSV or Influenza by sharing air, and their tiny bodies are simply overwhelmed. 

-

In 2008, I watched my infant son in the Sick Kids ER struggling to breathe. It was terrifying. Recalling it now is still upsetting. There was a bed for him, and his immune system wasn't damaged. Don't count on either of these today. Please keep Halloween outside this year. 3/3

Life expectency did increase in the 20th century because we managed to keep more children surviving the first years....