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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant

What will the end of the pandemic look like?

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Little House View Drop Down
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    Posted: January 02 2022 at 5:54pm

First, let me say that I do not think that we have reached the end.  It is still a ways off.


I do wonder however if we will recognize the end.   Some say that Covid will become endemic (something we can live with), but others think that eventually we will reach herd immunity and the virus will die out.  In either case, how will we know?  Many people thrive on adversity and will not want to let the pandemic go.  I saw this with the ebola outbreak years ago.  Even when it was obviously well contained, many were still predicting that it would get worse.  I fear that this will be worse with Covid.  Covid has affected everyone on the planet and almost everyone has an opinion about what should be done about it.  Many (including the media) won’t want to let go of it.  For some, Covid has become their life.  Admitting that it is over will be very difficult for some people.


So with all of this in mind, what signs will signal to you that the pandemic is essentially over? 

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ME163 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote ME163 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 02 2022 at 6:04pm

The end of the pandemic will happen when hell freezes over or when Steak sauce or Kiwi finally get real.  


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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 02 2022 at 9:44pm

I believe there are science-criteria for calling a disease/pandemic over....Some diseases are supposed to be extinct because after 1 or 2 years no cases have been detected. 

In this pandemic [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cluster_5[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cluster_5 is believed to be extinct, maybe also the first variants of CoViD (wild type/Wuhan, Alpha-UK) are no longer detected (in humans....I believe US deer is still wildtype...). 

Pandemic or endemic is a wordgame.....It would be so very welcome if CoViD-19 would develop into some sort of other-fifth-cold-corona-virus...so far there is no clear indication for that eventhough one could claim Omicron mostly infecting the upper respitory system could be seen as an indication CoViD-19 could develop that way....

CoViD-19 getting extinct - very small chance, CoViD-19 becoming endemic (and mild enough to live with) maybe....the third possibility is that this pandemic will develop CoViD as a kind of flu showing up all over the globe...a sort of permanent pandemic....Fourth possibility is CoViD-19 developes into that many variants it can kill most larger creatures....I think we are somewhere between "scenario" 3 and 4....

In the worst scenario this pandemic simply runs out of hosts to infect...killing most of them...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Little House View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Little House Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 05 2022 at 11:21am

Well, I guess I disagree with you.  I do believe that at some point we will no longer see large numbers of Covid cases.  That Covid will become a thing of the past.

I am a numbers person, but I am not sure how low the numbers will have to get before I would consider the pandemic over.  They got very low last summer, but then rebounded, so I know that the threshold will be even lower than that.  Our state tracks “cases per 100,000 over a two week period.”  The way they get the number is wonky, but the number does a pretty good job of showing how many people are possibly contagious.  The state lifted our mask mandate when that number fell below 50, but of course we rebounded and the number is now over 1000.  So I don’t know how low it will have to get, maybe below 10?  

Maybe there is some other way to measure when we are there.  How many people you know are sick?  When the supply chain finally gets straightened out?  When staffing shortages are resolved? When schools stop switching back and forth between in person and virtual days?  When people stop wearing masks and don’t get sick because of it? 

I guess that my main point is that many people will continue to believe that we are in terrible danger long after the danger has passed.  I don’t want to be that person.  On the other hand, I also don’t want to be the person who does not take precautions when they are needed.  I don’t trust the media to be reasonable about it so I am trying to figure it out for myself.

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KiwiMum View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 05 2022 at 11:54am

I'm with Little House on this one, as I think it will just peter out. We'll find numbers dropping, people not really bothered by it. Didn't the Spanish Flu go the same way? I think it's still with us today and it's just that everyone has been exposed to it and it's evolved to become much milder and we've evolved to have immunity to it.

"Once you've decided that something's absolutely true, you've closed your mind on it, and a closed mind doesn't go anywhere. Question everything. That's what education's all about." ~ David Eddings
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cn65 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cn65 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 05 2022 at 12:17pm

Provided DJ's scenario 4 does not happen I reckon by spring of this year certainly in the UK/Europe the focus of the populations will be on inflation and in particular energy prices 

The "cap" in the Uk holding down energy prices basically making energy companies supply at a loss unless fully hedged into the future will be reviewed in April and the resulting umpteen 10's or percent change in prices will make people's cost go crazy and result in a totally different "panic".

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote A-I Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 05 2022 at 5:15pm

Originally posted by ME163 ME163 wrote:

The end of the pandemic will happen when hell freezes over or when Steak sauce or Kiwi finally get real.  


Don't worry you can keep your pandemic end of the world psychosis going well after the pandemic ends. Bubble up for real. Glad you both got out of the hospital and are feeling better.

"Facts don't care about your feelings" I'M A UNVAXXED DEVIL so kiss my rebel ass.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote A-I Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 05 2022 at 5:27pm

I think the end of the pandemic will look a lot less stressful for most. I think it has caused stress in a myriad of ways whether people are aware of it or not. Smiles seem a lot less frequent. It'll be nice for that to change back to more frequent.

"Facts don't care about your feelings" I'M A UNVAXXED DEVIL so kiss my rebel ass.
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 05 2022 at 9:28pm

Just posted an "Exponential Pandemic Model" in general discussion...basic point is we have to act on an international scale and use all the tools we have to end this pandemic....(before it ends us). 

Since I am an optimist by nature-at the end we will see action wide/large enough to end this pandemic...in combination with lots of luck...I hope...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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KiwiMum View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 06 2022 at 12:01pm

Originally posted by A-I A-I wrote:

I think the end of the pandemic will look a lot less stressful for most. I think it has caused stress in a myriad of ways whether people are aware of it or not. Smiles seem a lot less frequent. It'll be nice for that to change back to more frequent.

I was in the supermarket just before Christmas and at the checkout, and I noticed a lovely old man at the next checkout smiling at me. I smiled back and I thought isn't it lovely to see a smile, and then I realised he was wearing his mask under his chin and that's why I could see his smile. It really did cheer me up. The week previous I was in a big box homewares store as it opened and there were 5 other people in there with me, an elderly couple with one wearing their mask on their forehead and one under the chin, and another woman my age wearing her mask hanging off one ear. It was so funny. In the tiny queue that formed for the only till open we were all laughing about it. We are obliged under law to wear a mask in a shop here but there are no specifications as to how you have to wear it. 

Of course you guys in the rest of the world will reach the end of the pandemic a long time before we do here, as we still haven't really had it. I think there are 20 cases in my district at the moment. We've still got it all to come. Omicron has arrived but it hasn't taken off. There have been 3 community cases found in Auckland and they've all been whisked away to quarantine in a hotel under guard.

"Once you've decided that something's absolutely true, you've closed your mind on it, and a closed mind doesn't go anywhere. Question everything. That's what education's all about." ~ David Eddings
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