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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant

When will it happen?-Possible Timeline

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TJ108 View Drop Down
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    Posted: March 09 2006 at 9:58am
Everyone keeps asking when is it going to happen. That is the key question. Even the experts are divided on the answer. Some say soon, some say not for several years, others say never. Obviously several things need to happen in order for a pandemic to happen. Right now we have the luxury of time to prepare. When the first human-to-human transmission is confirmed and we start seeing groups of people infected—families, villages, etc. we will know it is starting. At the point the key element will be containment but it will not be easy. It will set all of the best laid plans in motion and a mad scramble to make them work. A localized epidemic will turn into a global pandemic. Based on current events and the rapid spread into Africa and Europe here is a possible projected timeline:

Now and summer 2006-
Bird flu found throughout all of Europe and Russia in both birds and mammals
More isolated human cases in Asia (still from contact with infected poultry)
First human cases in Africa (from contact with infected poultry)

Fall 2006
Bird flu found in Alaska and Canada

Fall 2006-Spring 2007
Moves into US infecting wild birds and some poultry stocks
First human cases detected in US (hunters who had contact with infected birds or mammals)
New cases detected in Mexico, Australia and South America

Summer-winter 2007
First H2H cases in Asia and Africa confirmed. Localized epidemics among villages
First wave sweeps Asia and Africa with outbreaks in other parts of the world
Containment efforts keep it at bay for 3-6 months
Virus spreads to Europe and US within 2-5 months
Sweeps US within 3-4 weeks

Summer-Winter 2008
2nd wave sweeps the globe

Spring-summer 2009
Economic recovery begins

When H2H transmission is confirmed the time to prepare will end.

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