This could get ugly with the Lunar New Year.  The poultry markets will explode with sales and people, not to mention limited h2h.

jacksdad wrote: Suzi - Hong Kong found it in poultry from Guangdong, but China says it's not there. Someone's lying

I've said this before, but it could be worth repeating.  SARS spread internationally and left China at around 300 cases.  Both h7 and SARS had/have similar limited h2h.   Based on history, h7 will probably do the same within about 30 days. 

think i might have to start Prepin......lol

carbon20 wrote: think i might have to start Prepin......lol

i dont prep as such ,my belief is that if the "slate wiper " hit and with luck me and mine survive, after

 3/4 weeks  there wont be many people left.......

i have a 'BUG OUT' plan/place to go away from the populated areas

 i do worry what to do about the animals in the Zoo?

prob.  have to leave them to die...........

there would be some hard times ,doubt if most peoples head's would cope with the reality

Vermin would take over ,there  would be rats by the millions and  Roaches, wild cats and dogs ,scavaging

 on the dead,

i think alot of survivor's would go mad

so glad i live here in the most isolated city on the planet

one road in and 4,000 kms  to the next nearest city across a desert

only 2million people live in the whole of Western Australia

Kyle, Denver will get bad I live in the outer burbs and I am armed to the teeth but...I think about just laying low making my house look like it was burned out and boarded up. NO one is in good shape. When I read that book about the Argentina guy he talks about people in their "bug out houses" and how people like that were tortured, raped, and killed.

It will be the luck of the draw for all of us no matter where we are!

i think its a few things that will play a role , depends on the severity of the pandemic..

worst case the 'slate wiper' 97% of the population die

add to that death from  other causes,

you might have all the preps you can ,and die in the first week,

depends on the incubation period  of virus

and if you were watching events through a site like this

for warned is forarmed

BE AWARE !!!!!!

MIGHT SAVE  YOU AND YOURS ......

EXcellent post Jacksdad

"prepping" is insurance

that's how I think of it

I don't ever want to have to use it

but IF I need it

it is there

I've posted this before

but it bears repeating

If 3 Inches Of Snow Can Cause This Much Chaos In Atlanta, What Will Economic Collapse Look Like?

http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/if-3-inches-of-snow-can-cause-this-much-chaos-in-atlanta-what-will-economic-collapse-look-like

excerpt

Well, according to a report put out by the American Trucker Associations entitled “When Trucks Stop, America Stops“, life would get “apocalyptic” quite rapidly…

A Timeline Showing the Deterioration of Major Industries Following a Truck Stoppage

The first 24 hours

• Delivery of medical supplies to the affected area will cease.
• Hospitals will run out of basic supplies such as syringes and catheters within hours. Radiopharmaceuticals will deteriorate and become unusable.
• Service stations will begin to run out of fuel.
• Manufacturers using just-in-time manufacturing will develop component shortages.
• U.S. mail and other package delivery will cease.

Within one day

• Food shortages will begin to develop.
• Automobile fuel availability and delivery will dwindle, leading to skyrocketing prices and long lines at the gas pumps.
• Without manufacturing components and trucks for product delivery,
assembly lines will shut down, putting thousands out of work.

Within two to three days

• Food shortages will escalate, especially in the face of hoarding and consumer panic.
• Supplies of essentials—such as bottled water, powdered milk, and
canned meat—at major retailers will disappear.
• ATMs will run out of cash and banks will be unable to process
transactions.
• Service stations will completely run out of fuel for autos and trucks.
• Garbage will start piling up in urban and suburban areas.
• Container ships will sit idle in ports and rail transport will be disrupted, eventually coming to a standstill.

Within a week

• Automobile travel will cease due to the lack of fuel. Without autos and busses, many people will not be able to get to work, shop for groceries, or access medical care.
• Hospitals will begin to exhaust oxygen supplies.

Within two weeks

• The nation’s clean water supply will begin to run dry.

Within four weeks

• The nation will exhaust its clean water supply and water will be safe for drinking only after boiling. As a result gastrointestinal illnesses will increase, further taxing an already weakened health care system.

This timeline presents only the primary effects of a freeze on truck travel. Secondary effects must be considered as well, such as inability to maintain telecommunications service, reduced law enforcement, increased crime, increased illness and injury, higher death rates, and likely, civil unrest.

and unfortunately

most Americans aren't prepared for much of anything

Not Prepared: 17 Signs That Most Americans Will Be Wiped Out By The Coming Economic Collapse

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/not-prepared-17-signs-that-most-americans-will-be-wiped-out-by-the-coming-economic-collapse

The driving force for our family is the overdue huge earthquake from the Alpine Fault. When that happens, the whole of the South Island of New Zealand will cease to function.

I've mentioned this before, but I was in the SoCal blackout and even though it only lasted about 12 hours in the worst affected areas, what I saw still managed to shake my faith in people's priorities. It happened late in the afternoon, and the timing made all the difference.
I learned a valuable lesson myself that day because both of our vehicles were low on gas and I had nothing stored in cans. I picked up my wife (45 minutes in traffic on a route that normally takes five), but we had to pull over on the way back and wait for the congestion to clear or risking running out of fuel. The gas stations we passed were bumper to bumper with cars, drivers standing dejectedly next to their vehicles, probably unable to get home. We parked in the shade outside a liquor store, and for an hour we watched a constant stream of people pull up, look through the darkened windows, bargain unsuccessfully with the staff seated outside in chairs and leave. KiwiMum - you have plenty of everything, but I guarantee that most of these people had no food, water or batteries stockpiled. Booze was the last thing they should have been hunting down in the hours before it got dark.
And it got dark. It was like being out in the mountains or desert on a moonless night. We had area lamps and flashlights in abundance, and an emergency radio for updates on the few stations we could find still able to broadcast. The streets and houses were pitch black though, with the exception of maybe one house per block with a single candle lighting up a room. People were bending down and using cellphones to light their way as they walked home. It was sad, and very disturbing to contemplate what the second night would have been like if the power hadn't come back on. And the chaos that would have ensued by the end of the first week doesn't bear thinking about.

i live 5 mins from the ocean, rabbits and kangaroos ,sheep and cattle all nearbye for fresh food ,i am an

experienced out doors person ,believe me when i say, i know my capablities to think on my feet,i can

make drinking water out of the lakes around where i live ,i have tins of fish ,potatoes ,veggies

 i have dried milk powder(full fat) ,rice and flour and pasta,

i dont store shelves of toilet paper, as i have seen other prepers do on the TV,


i dont need a weapon!!!!!

Perth is a very special place to live ,

the Austalian people will all pull together in a crisis,

i am a member of the local State Emergency Service,

i know how to make it through if the  going gets tough,

might boost up the supplies the moment i hear H2H confirmed !!!!!!

5 P's ........prior preperation prevents poor perfomance

think this site is great ,and you all good people on here glad to be with you

jacksdad- I had to Goggle it, I've never read Stephen King! I don't know about 90% but I believe sooner or later there will be a GoF lab accident or some terrorist will let something loose that we've never seen before!   

I mean the abstract previously posted. Is it recent?

arirish wrote: jacksdad- I had to Goggle it, I've never read Stephen King! I don't know about 90% but I believe sooner or later there will be a GoF lab accident or some terrorist will let something loose that we've never seen before!

Arirish - do yourself a favor and get a copy of "The Stand", and definitely take the time to find the much longer unabridged version. When he first wrote it, Stephen King didn't have as much clout with his publishers as he does now, and they cut almost half of it (something like 500 pages). Thankfully the original is now in print again. It's a long read, but you'll still wish it was longer.

Absolutely awesome novel

Is The Stand a horror story? I read some Stephen King when I was at college and it was really frightening. I'm not sure I could read another horror story. I love thrillers, just not horror. 

I read all the time, mostly history and mysterys but I love all books so I'll give all of the above a try! Thanks for the recommendations!

Yes Looper luck will be a big part of survival. I don't know about you but I am not wealthy enough to have a second retreat. Many of us do not have that kind of money. And what? You take off from your home during a pandemic or some other event with thousands and try and take over some other persons retreat out of the city?

No matter where you SIP there will be someone who will try and take what you have.

Now if you have a fully functioning underground retreat that does not need for you to ever come out of the hole then you are both very lucky and very wealthy.

Then you have to look at how old you are and your physical condition. I am in my mid 60's with a kid in college. I have a "bad" ankle that I hurt in my 30's and I do therapy for it but it is a big weakness. So a very long walk especially on uneven ground is not a good thing.

My husband died in 5 years ago so no man to help... makes a huge difference. Men have skills and strengths that most women do not have. And my 20 year old son does not make a man...yet!

I will be lucky depending on the disaster on getting my kid home from college and hunker down at home. So yes, luck will play a big part on survival for many of us.

we do get side tracked dont we LOL,

anyway h7n9 is very scary ,noting that we humans have no  resistance to it........aka  a  few posts ago

6 new cases in China, 1 dead.

FluMom wrote: Then you have to look at how old you are and your physical condition. I am in my mid 60's with a kid in college. I have a "bad" ankle that I hurt in my 30's and I do therapy for it but it is a big weakness. So a very long walk especially on uneven ground is not a good thing. My husband died in 5 years ago so no man to help... makes a huge difference. Men have skills and strengths that most women do not have. And my 20 year old son does not make a man...yet! I will be lucky depending on the disaster on getting my kid home from college and hunker down at home. So yes, luck will play a big part on survival for many of us.

Wow, can I relate! Younger (45) and healthy but also no man & keeping farm going with 'power on' and everything being so called normal is hard enough!! You are so right in that men have different skills - I can do some wood work, but am absolutely useless when it comes to anything mechanical!!!   
I do have family close by - one thinks he's ready, but also thinks what coming 'isn't a big deal...'! No concept of how ugly this can/will get - and by this I mean grid down as it seems like all worst case scenarios - terrorist attack, EMP, plague, massive natural disaster etc all eventually hit society break down & power outage... One thing that never seems to get touched on is the fact that if grid down occurs for any real duration of time - the us has 100+ nuclear power plants that all have the potential to turn into Fukushima!!!! To try to survive that WILL need an under ground bunker & in that regard I'm also the same as you (& most ppl) ...who has $!!'s for that?!?!?

Human infection with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus – update

Disease outbreak news

3 FEBRUARY 2014 - The National Health and Family Planning Commission (NHFPC) of China has notified WHO of nine additional laboratory-confirmed cases of human infection with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus, including one death.

Details of four cases notified on 1 February 2014 are as follows:

All four cases are male. The age range is 5 to 80 years old. Cases have been reported from Guangdong (2), and Zhejiang (2). Two cases are currently in critical condition and the other two cases are in stable condition. Three of the cases are reported to have had exposure to poultry or a live poultry market.

A 80-year-old man from Hangzhou City, Zhejiang Province, who became ill on 19 January and was admitted to hospital on 30 January. He is currently in a critical condition. The patient has a history of exposure to live poultry.

A 54-year-old man from Hangzhou City, Zhejiang Province, who became ill on 23 January and was admitted to hospital on 26 January. He is currently in a critical condition.

A 6-year-old boy who is living in Shenzhen City, Guangdong Province, and became ill on 27 January. He was detected on 28 January by Shenzhen Entry-Exit Quarantine Bureau when travelling through Huanggang Port. He has mild symptoms and is in a stable condition. He is currently in isolated treatment at home. The patient has a history of exposure to live poultry.

A 5-year old boy from Zhaoqing City, Guangdong Province, who became ill on 29 January and admitted to hospital on the same day. He is in a stable condition. The patient has a history of exposure to a live poultry market.

Details of five cases notified on 31 January 2014 are as follows:

Of these, four cases are male. The age range is 28 to 82 years old. Cases have been reported from Guangdong (4), and Hunan (1). One case is fatal and the rest are currently in critical or serious condition. Four of the cases are reported to have had exposure to poultry or a live poultry market.

A 28-year-old man from Zhaoqing City, Guangdong Province, who became ill on 24 January 2014 and admitted to hospital on 26 January. He is currently in a critical condition. The patient has a history of exposure to a live poultry market.

A 82-year-old man from Foshan City, Guangdong Province, who became ill on 22 January and admitted to hospital on 26 January. He is currently in a critical condition.

A 59-year-old man from Guangzhou City, Guangdong Province, who became ill on 22 January and admitted to hospital on 26 January. He died on 30 January. The patient had a history of exposure to a live poultry market.

A 81-year-old woman from Shenzhen City, Guangdong Province, who became ill on 25 January and admitted to hospital on 29 January. She is currently in a serious condition. The patient has a history of exposure to a live poultry market.

A 38-year-old male from Yongzhou City, Hunan Province with onset of symptoms on 24 January 2014. He was admitted to hospital on 30 January and is currently in a critical condition. The patient has a history of exposure to a live poultry market.

So far, there is no evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission.

The Chinese Government continues to take the following surveillance and control measures:

strengthen surveillance and situation analysis;
reinforce case management and treatment;
conduct risk communication with the public and release information;
strengthen international collaboration and communication; and
conduct scientific studies.

Sporadic human cases

While the recent report of avian influenza A(H7N9) virus being detected in live poultry imported from the mainland to Hong Kong SAR, shows the potential for the virus to spread through live poultry, at this time there is no indication that international spread of avian influenza A(H7N9) has occurred through humans or animals.

Further sporadic human cases of A(H7N9) infection are expected in affected and possibly neighbouring areas, especially given expected increases in the trade and transport of poultry associated with the Lunar New Year.

WHO advice

WHO advises that travellers to countries with known outbreaks of avian influenza should avoid poultry farms, or contact with animals in live bird markets, or entering areas where poultry may be slaughtered, or contact with any surfaces that appear to be contaminated with faeces from poultry or other animals. Travellers should also wash their hands often with soap and water. Travellers should follow good food safety and good food hygiene practices.

WHO does not advise special screening at points of entry with regard to this event, nor does it currently recommend any travel or trade restrictions.

As always, a diagnosis of infection with an avian influenza virus should be considered in individuals who develop severe acute respiratory symptoms while travelling or soon after returning from an area where avian influenza is a concern.

WHO encourages countries to continue strengthening influenza surveillance, including surveillance for severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) and to carefully review any unusual patterns, in order to ensure reporting of human infections under the IHR (2005), and continue national health preparedness actions.

WHO