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Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant

Why I Don't See Vaccine Breakthrough Yet.

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    Posted: December 26 2013 at 1:01am
     So if not already vaccinated, do it now!  I am monitoring this issue and the majority of information on the internet is still indicating most people getting ill were not vaccinated, point one.  Point two, a well matched flu vaccine is only 60% totally effective, and we are seeing this or better, there are always a few who will still get very sick.   Point three, the WHO recently stated that the original 2009 H1N1 was more lethal than first thought, is now known to have killed over 200000 people.   We must monitor for mutations-but do not need them to explain what is happening.   But my point 4 is the most significant-testing shows there are still plenty of people who never had H1N1 or the vaccine for H1N1 to utilise as victims.
See below, only 35% of young adults are immune!  Only half of the rest of you!   Read the article below re. Canada which is now also being savaged by H1N1.  Lots of non-immune people, no need to go to Defcon 5 over this issue.  At least, not yet   Get vaccinated! 
      I will continue to monitor re. possible vaccine breakthrough.  John L.
 
 

It may not be much of a surprise that public health professionals are reporting a rise in flu cases, but it's the dominant strain that has caught them off guard. It appears that H1N1, or swine flu, which first appeared in Canada in 2009, is back.

Cities in Ontario and Alberta have reported clusters of serious cases of influenza, some of which have been severe enough to put patients in hospital.

Misericordia Hospital in Edmonton has reported that about a dozen patients and staff have contracted serious cases of the flu, and other clusters have been reported in Windsor and London, Ont., and in Calgary.

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Dr. Judy MacDonald of Alberta Health Services says some influenza patients are now in intensive care.

"What we are seeing that is different this year is the severity of illness," MacDonald said.

In Alberta, 68 patients have been hospitalized and three flu-related deaths have been recorded since September.

H1N1, or swine flu, has been circulating the globe for about five years and swept across North America in 2009.

Public health officials expected that a majority of people would have developed immunity to the strain after it first circulated, but rising reports of illness suggest otherwise.

"We are seeing a large number of cases of new outbreaks in populations we thought were already protected, and that to me is kind of a surprise," infectious disease specialist Dr. Neil Rau told CTV News.

Testing in British Columbia suggests that only 50 per cent of adults, 35 per cent of young adults and only 20 per cent of children under the age of 5 are immune to H1N1.

Virus evolving

Dr. Danuta Skowronski of the B.C. Centre for Disease Control said tests also indicate that "the virus is starting to evolve."

"I sense we won't see anything like we saw in 2009," Skowronski told CTV News. "But the remaining people who are susceptible, such as the very young and young adults, may be susceptible to this virus."

People who are young and healthy and decided not to get their annual flu shot "should think twice and get the vaccine," Rau said.

He also pointed out that residents in the parts of Canada that have yet to see spike in cases should get the flu shot before flu season there ramps up.

Meanwhile, patients in the U.S. are also ending up in hospital critically ill, and health officials are investigating six deaths from H1N1. Most patients had not been vaccinated, which underscores the importance of this year's vaccine, which offers protection against H1N1.

While flu clinics close over the holidays, the flu shot is still available at pharmacies in most provinces.

With a report from CTV's medical specialist Avis Favaro and producer Elizabeth St. Philip

John L
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 26 2013 at 2:55am
http://pf11.blogspot.nl/2013/12/texas-ha-225-receptor-binding-variance.html

2013-12-25

Texas HA 225 Receptor Binding Variance Potential

Sequences discussed in this analysis are variously stored publicly at GenBank and at GISAID. We gratefully acknowledge the authors, originating and submitting laboratories of the sequences from GenBank and from GISAID’s EpiFlu™ Database on which this research is based.

Publish Date : 2013-12-25
Last Update : 2013-12-25


Current trending indicates a reportable potential for HA 225 Receptor Binding Variance spreading into Texas on theHemagglutinin of pH1N1. This change may enhance Vaccine Escape from the currently selected vaccine target candidate, CA/07 X181.  

The GeneWurx RnR model approximates that Receptor Binding Variance at HA 225 may spread into Texas sampled from a severe or fatal case on a pH1N1 background carrying either 225N or 225G, according to the following probabilities.

  • 60% probability sampled by 2014-02-01 of HA 225N.
  • 78% probability sampled by 2014-02-01 of either HA 225N or HA 225G.
  • 01% probability sampled by 2014-06-30 of HA 225N conserving across pH1N1.
  • 04% probability sampled by 2014-06-30 of HA 225N conserving on one Hydra.
  • 16% probability sampled by 2014-06-30 of HA 225N persisting sporadically on one Hydra.
These outcomes are predicated on properly collected and handled specimen material, at a minimum, from broncho-alveolar lavage and / or from lung tissue at autopsy.  Deep sequencing is indicated for these low-trace, quasi-speciessituations. We are fully aware that these types of collections may be withheld from public issue.  Therefore, this prediction may fail to be validated due to that intentional censoring of public health data.

As we are concerned that no valid specimen may be properly collected, sequenced and made available to researchers, we provide a GeneWurx projection of the highest ranking clinical severity combination of Hemagglutinin andNeuraminidase segments.  HA 225N is the RBS polymorphism that we consider of gravest concern to the Texas citizens at the moment; although, the projected Neuraminidase is a high probability potentiator of clinical morbidity.

Avoidance of Influenza may be a lifesaving behaviour this winter.

HA Projection

. . . . . . . . 21 Polymorphisms (9 Amino and 12 Silent)
. . . . . . . . syn77S (AGt),
. . . . . . . . 100N,
. . . . . . . . syn141H (CAc),
. . . . . . . . 166Q,
. . . . . . . . syn179L (CTg),
. . . . . . . . 188T,
. . . . . . . . 225N,
. . . . . . . . 259T,
. . . . . . . . 286E,
. . . . . . . . syn308K (AAg),
. . . . . . . . syn333F (TTc),
. . . . . . . . syn338G (GGc),
. . . . . . . . syn372Q (CAa),
. . . . . . . . 377K,
. . . . . . . . syn383N (AAc),
. . . . . . . . syn396V (GTg),
. . . . . . . . syn413K (AAg),
. . . . . . . . syn448L (TTg),
. . . . . . . . 454N,
. . . . . . . . 502K,
. . . . . . . . syn537S (AGc))

NA Projection

. . . . . . . . 16 Polymorphisms (10 Amino and 6 Silent)
. . . . . . . . 40V
. . . . . . . . 44S,
. . . . . . . . syn77G (GGg),
. . . . . . . . 79P,
. . . . . . . . 106V,
. . . . . . . . 108V,
. . . . . . . . 199N,
. . . . . . . . 200S,
. . . . . . . . 222D,
. . . . . . . . syn240T (ACc),
. . . . . . . . 241I,
. . . . . . . . 369K,
. . . . . . . . syn377P (CCa),
. . . . . . . . syn378N (AAt),
. . . . . . . . syn439S (AGt),
. . . . . . . . syn452T (ACc))

Additional revisions may compound onto these segments.  HA 225G will variously arise on this same combination given certain collection and passage strategies (E3). CrossClade revision may occur under particular passage strategies and / or plague purifications. 

Due to message management and information sparsity, conclusions on clinical progressions may not be finalised at this time.  However, present clinical reports tend toward the suggestion that in all but exceptional cases, patients infected with this background will experience severe to fatal illness. 

The pH1N1 reservoir has currently seeded genetic material for this background throughout North America including onTamiFlu Resistant strains.  This genetic bed is positioned to become widely TamiFlu Resistant during the 2013-2014 season in addition to using these Receptor Binding Site polymorphisms to manifest flashfires of High-CFR intensity inNorth American geographic foci.

These probabilities will be updated as additional data is made public.  Transparency at this post-pandemic stage is essential to formulate viable responses for the risk groups.  Release of sequences and clinical data of a finer detail and higher quantity will allow information-based decisions.

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote coyote Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 26 2013 at 3:43am
Hi John and thanks for the post..

John wrote..
Canada which is now also being savaged by H1N1. Lots of non-immune people, no need to go to Defcon 5 over this issue. At least, not yet   Get vaccinated!

Just a note:

Movies and popular culture often misuse the DEFCON system by "going to DEFCON 5" during a state of emergency.[7] In fact, DEFCON 5 is the lowest state of readiness. The highest state, DEFCON 1, has never been called for.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 26 2013 at 4:20am
Talking about "Pandemic Alert Level" or "Defcon" might be misleading. I rather go for specifics; who is where in danger of what ? The perspectives for present flu-season might be worse then the 2009/2010 flu season, proberbly world-wide.  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jdljr1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 26 2013 at 4:30am
     The reason we would be going to DEFCON 5 is because Albert's Pandemic alert scale system at the top of the page is based upon the WHO pandemic alert system, where the higher numbers signify the more severe pandemic alert.  You may call it pandemic alert level 5 also, we have just taken to calling it our DEFCON level, but it progresses upward numerically like the WHO scale if Albert, in consultation with his group members, makes that choice.
     Also, I know that severe mutations are already out there, however there is no evidence yet that they have taken over.  The one probably closest is the insidious spread down South of Tamiflu resistance.  If I got flu there I would personally insist upon Relenza  Best, John L.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote coyote Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 26 2013 at 4:52am
Hi John, Thanks for clarifying that..I think that you live in NYS also? My Best,Dan
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jdljr1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 26 2013 at 4:58am
     Yes, Dan.  Just North of NY City.   (And we, are probably next.)   Best,  John L.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote coyote Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 26 2013 at 5:03am
Same here my friend..up here in the Catskills.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 26 2013 at 5:12am
The pandemic alert phase is also used as a warning to people of a potential severe flu wave approaching.   Since this h1n1 variant may not necessarily result in a pandemic by definition, defcon 5 may be the highest level we reach in this case.  It could also potentially result in more deaths than a mild pandemic depending on what happens in the coming days/weeks.  People should be on alert and aware that because of holiday travel over the last few days that this new h1n1 is set to spread rather rapidly.  As niman would say, an explosion of cases.  Level 5 has to be considered not only because of what's currently happening, but because what's about to happen.  

An analogy we could use is when a tsunami warning is issued after an earthquake, and although the tsunami may end up only being a foot high, it was a tsunami non-the-less and there were still unknowns at play - and the warning is used to make people aware of what's approaching.  I'm not saying that we're going to D-5, but the alert level in our case is also used as a pre-warning system.  Holiday travel has to be considered with what's happening in this situation.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jdljr1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 26 2013 at 5:36am
     Albert, in addition to holiday travel, the return of children to school usually unfortunately also greatly boosts spread.  Best, John L.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 26 2013 at 5:42am
I agree John.  The re-emergence of h1n1, or the emergence of this variant, couldn't have come at worse time.  Holiday travel plus with kids returning to school soon equals a significant public health risk in about a week or so.   If going to level 5 brings awareness that could save one young child, then maybe it has to be considered.  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 26 2013 at 9:28am
Excellent post John Junior, and i totally agree with your examination of the evidence. My research pointed to the same conclusion. Vaccinations seem to be working! 

As for defcon 5. Still i would have my finger on the trigger. But for my money i think the evidence suggests this may just be a heavy seasonal H1N1 flu.  

It will be interesting to see the genetic analysis and if 225G is in the mix..
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A couple of other things, we might change the term Pandemic Alert Level to Influenza Alert Level. 

Also depending on what happens over the next 30 days or by early Feb, we will be looking at decreasing to Defcon 3, or possibly lower.

 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 26 2013 at 10:38am
My gut feeling is that H1N1 isn't going to be anything more than a really bad seasonal strain this time around, but it does concern me that we have so many other strains that are showing pretty impressive CFRs but lack human to human transmissibility. H1N1 possesses that ability (and then some) and as it spreads during this year's flu season the odds are that it will coinfect someone with a deadlier strain. It's only a matter of time before it spawns something significantly more dangerous. It might not be this year, but the increased proliferation of humans infected with avian strains in China makes it more and more likely.
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Here is the skinny on DEFCONs. DEFCON 5 is normal ops - - nothing happening. As TSHTF we step from 5 to 1 as events drive the need for more readiness. The highest alert state (highest readiness) is DEFCON 1. The next step after 1 is Air Defense Emergency when we are under actual attack. In the Cuban Missile Crises we reached DEFCON 2. I am in favor of following an established system that people (CDC or WHO) are already using.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 26 2013 at 9:23pm
DEFCON is a term used by the regulars.

It stands for Defense Emergency Flu Classification and Observation Number
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jdljr1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 31 2013 at 12:27am
     The vaccine still appears to be holding fast.  (See below.)  But if you do not obtain it soon, you are not going to need it.  (Strong hint.)
      I am still suspicious this H1N1 is a more severe variant from 2009 however, and is also evolving tamiflu resistance quickly.
 
 
OKLAHOMA CITY -

The flu is on the rise in Oklahoma, according to federal health officials. The peak of the virus' season is still a good month away.

Medical professionals in Oklahoma tell News 9 this year's flu shot seems to be doing a pretty good job, but still, more than 50 percent of Oklahoma's 77 counties have now reported flu activity. People are reporting those familiar symptoms of body aches, cough and fevers.

"Some people have vomiting and diarrhea, but that's not always the case for everyone," Mercy Clinic physician assistant Stacy Fagan said.

Fagan's time was limited at her Northwest Oklahoma city clinic Monday. In fact, it was difficult to squeeze in an interview with her due to all of the patients she has been seeing. The federal government's tracking of the flu shows many of the cases are outpatient visits to places like the Mercy Clinic.

"If you've got a fever above 99 that's not going down, I would definitely come in to be seen," said Fagan.

Experts say those who allow symptoms to linger for more than two days without treatment are setting themselves up for a long road to recovery. Fagan says after 48 hours, Tamiflu is not recommended and there's not much that can be done. On Monday, the Oklahoma State Department of Health said 54 people had been hospitalized with the virus, with ten of those being treated within the last week.

"The cases that I've seen of the flu this year … they have not had the flu shot, so I do recommend getting the shot every year," Fagan said.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 01 2014 at 5:17am
Anecdotal evidence of vaccine breakthrough.

Below is copied from *******:

As flu cases rise, some who got vaccinated are testing positive
Rhiannon Meyers

By Rhiannon Meyers
Posted December 31, 2013 at 2:53 p.m.

CORPUS CHRISTI — Flu is on the rise and even though the predominant strain is covered by the vaccine, some people who were vaccinated are testing positive. 
...
Brian Garner’s two children, 1 and 6 years old, contracted the flu this year even though both were vaccinated in October at their pediatrician’s office.

“My daughter wakes up Christmas Day ready for Santa Claus and she had a 101 degree fever,” Garner said. “We got her this little scooter and she wanted to play on it outside, but then her fever jumped to 102 and we had to pull her back inside.”

Two days later, Garner, 36, headed to an urgent care center with flu-like symptoms.

“It was nuts,” he said. “I waited two hours before I saw anybody.”

He was diagnosed with the flu. A day later, his son tested positive. On Monday, his wife was diagnosed, too. All four took the antiviral drug Tamiflu but it seemed to work best for his son, who started taking the drugs early.

Dr. Salim Surani, a lung doctor, said the flu does appear to be more intense this year, striking healthy people in their 20s to 40s. But many of the patients he’s seeing did not get vaccinated, he said. ..

http://www.*******.com/forum/showthread.php?t=215532 - http://www.*******.com/forum/showthread.php?t=215532

I don't know how much value to put on this information..

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 01 2014 at 6:04am
Is futracl(ers a dirty word. LOL
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 01 2014 at 8:57am
Cobber - if something shows up as a variation of ******, then it's blocked here. For one reason or another, the various flu communities/forums/blogs tend not to play well together. AFT was the first of it's kind (even predating the US government's pandemic flu website) and I think that rubs a few people the wrong way. Go on some of the other forums and mention you're from AFT and see what kind of welcome you get Ermm

I've been on a few sites since 2006 and I have no problem trolling them for info, but some (one in particular) are just so loaded down with masses of data that it's almost too much to process efficiently, and in some instances it seems that discussion by new members is discouraged by moderators who give themselves grand titles (ask me how I know...). It makes no sense to me that you should just copy and paste mountains of info and then slap down people who ask legitimate questions.

That's why I stayed here - it's more like family instead of a weird hierarchy, and we discuss topics openly instead of just using the place as a giant filing cabinet.

My suggestion would be if you find something relevant, just back track to the original article and copy and paste that. That way no feathers get ruffled and you don't have ******* all over your post  LOL


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 02 2014 at 5:14am
Hi Jacks i guessed as much.

I don't like formal forums and the associated forum gods!

Agreed their site is information overload
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 02 2014 at 7:25am
Yep - I've been on a few forums that were "overly moderated" to the point where you felt like you were walking on eggshells. There was a hot rod forum that was notorious for it and I fell foul of one of the mods by asking a question about a rat rod. Got a pissy message telling me my post had been deleted and to refrain from posting off topic or I'd be banned. Really - asking about a rat rod on a hot rod forum was so OT that I could actually get booted? Nobody needs pathetic little internet dictators like that. I let them now what I thought of their forum and never went back.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote nc_girl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 02 2014 at 9:16am
well, I've been here at AFT from the beginning and I like it the best.  I've trolled a few other sites at times but agree that we usually have the same info and usually earlier and it's so much friendlier.  I don't hesitate to post an article if I'm the first to find it and I like that.  I've never been attacked here or offended by moderators so... I'm staying.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pixie Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 04 2014 at 12:45pm
http://www.kptv.com/story/24361002/doctors-confirm-oregon-boy-5-dies-from-h1n1-virus

Vaccine breakthrough?
PORTLAND, OR (KPTV) -
Doctors confirm an Oregon boy, 5, has died from the H1N1 virus. His family says he collapsed on Christmas Day, and died just days later.

Calandra Burgess says all three of her kids got their flu shots this November, so she was surprised when her youngest son, Ronan, got sick.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jdljr1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 04 2014 at 4:02pm
     Years ago when they went from whole dead flu virus to split dead virus, in order to reduce vaccine side effects, they weakened an already mediocre vaccine more.  Also in the U.S we usually reject the use of adjuvants as used in Europe, again, to reduce risk of side effects.  Thus the example you give is not what is regarded as vaccine breakthrough-one of three is expected to still get sick.  It is tragic that this year, a few vaccinated are getting very sick, and that is why we are watching the situation.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 04 2014 at 4:37pm
Originally posted by jdljr1 jdljr1 wrote:

  Thus the example you give is not what is regarded as vaccine breakthrough-one of three is expected to still get sick. 


Seems to be in line with the 60% I keep seeing touted as the effectiveness of this year's vaccines.

Tragic loss - my heart goes out to his family Cry
"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 05 2014 at 8:36am
I heard antibody response can be weak. I read on a medicos blog that he suggested people think about getting the flu shot twice to make sure they are covered. (seek professional medical advice before doing this) 

On another site they suggested exercise the day after the flu shot to increase the immune response. And apparently ginger can help too. I assume this stresses the body and it reacts accordingly.
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