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Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant

Will Delta return ?

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Joined: May 01 2013
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    Posted: May 05 2022 at 10:35pm

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/delta/israel-the-next-covid-wave-could-be-delta/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/delta/israel-the-next-covid-wave-could-be-delta/ ;

There is a real danger of another international COVID wave this summer, with the Delta variant possibly poised to make a comeback, new Israeli research suggests.

The peer-reviewed study is based on cutting-edge Israeli monitoring of sewage, which reveals not only the prevalence of coronavirus cases, but also their variant.

It showed that even at the height of the Omicron wave, the previous Delta variant hadn’t been wiped out, even though it was expected to be based on the dynamics of previous waves.

Times of Israel report

 

“The resulting model predicts a significant decrease in Omicron levels within the near future, diminishing until fully disappearing. Furthermore, the Delta is also expected to decrease, but at a much lower pace, thereby still maintaining a low (yet non-vanishing) level of cryptic circulation in the population, before starting to rise again due to the waning immunity.”

Peer reviewed study: Cryptic circulation of the Delta variant during the Omicron rise

DJ, I think there are some misunderstandings;

-People can get infected by more then just one variant of CoViD-so they may have had BOTH Omicron AND Delta...but the Delta-virus-part may be missed.

-"Deltacron" recombinations DO have a Delta-part that may develop later on if there is enough spread. 

-Omicron variants resulted in very high numbers-but it did not stop all of the Delta-spread. If you have two million new cases of wich only 10,000 are Delta=0,5% it may be easy-but wrong-to ignore. 

see [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/604[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/604

Not having been assigned through this designation page
first i sum a bit what is AY.98.1
AY.98.1 is a lineage defined by Orf1a:E87D where AY.98 starts
and C7768T where AY.98.1 starts but the vast mayority of AY.98.1 sequences carries S:P251L, ORF1a:E1724D and Orf8:A65S beyond NUC: C19524T and G2518T.
.
It reached around 30000 sequences being massively sequenced especially in Europe from summer 2021 to Omicron rise. Its prevalence was quite high in Slovenia (where the covspectrum query unexpectedly put first sequences at the end of 2020) and ranged from 0,8 to 4% in Italy, France, Germany, Denmark.

In the late summer 2021 a sublineage of AY.98.1 characterized by Orf3a:Y109C and Nuc: G370T emerged in Germany and it is circulating there through today:
First sequence: 36/2021 Germany
Last sequence: 17/2022 Germany (BW)
Nr of Sequences: 488 (covspectrum, but i count 984 seqs on the Usher)
Sequences in 2022: 33
Sequences in April 2022: 4

-[url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports/delta?loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports/delta?loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected Even with an explosive growth of Omicron-Delta still 42% of all global  CoViD-sequences. Last Delta-cases detected often <1 month old. There are 250 (+) subvariants of Delta. 

DJ-One question could be wich variant (VOC) has more "flexibility" for further spread; answer could be BOTH !!! Delta and Omicron may keep finding ways for more spread. 

Of course "Omicron" in fact is several VOC's not one. BA.2 and BA.4/5 did gain ground over BA.1 variants. BA.3 was a sort of recombination of BA.1 and BA.2 never became big... 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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